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Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres July 23rd 2025
The San Diego Padres will play against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park in Miami, FL. The game is set for Wednesday, July 23, 2025, with a start time of 12:10 PM. Fans can catch the action on the SDPA channel.
The Padres, led by manager Mike Schildt, come into this game with a record of 55-46. They are four games back in the NL West. The Marlins, managed by Clayton McCullough, hold a 47-53 record and are ten games back in the NL East. Dylan Cease will start for the Padres, while Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Marlins.
Padres vs Marlins Key Information
- Sport: Baseball
- Teams: San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
- Venue: loanDepot Park in Miami, FL
- Date: Wednesday, July 23, 2025
- Betting Odds: Padres Moneyline -143, Marlins Moneyline +121
The Padres Can Win If…
The San Diego Padres are coming off a tight 3-4 loss to the Miami Marlins. Despite the loss, the Padres showed strong hitting with seven hits and four extra-base hits. Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill contributed with key RBIs, while Stephen Kolek pitched 5 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs.
Looking at their season stats, the Padres have a team ERA of 3.61, ranking 4th in the league. Their pitching staff has held opponents to a .230 batting average, which is 3rd best. With Dylan Cease on the mound, who recently delivered a solid performance against the Nationals, the Padres have a good chance to shut down the Marlins’ lineup.
Offensively, the Padres have Manny Machado leading the charge with 18 home runs and 60 RBIs. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Gavin Sheets add power to the lineup with a combined 30 home runs. The Padres’ lineup is capable of putting runs on the board, and with their strong pitching, they have a solid opportunity to win against the Marlins.
The Marlins Can Win If…
The Miami Marlins are coming off a 4-3 victory against the San Diego Padres. Edward Cabrera pitched well, allowing only one run in 5 2/3 innings. Agustín Ramírez contributed with two hits and two runs, showing his ability to get on base.
Miami’s batting average of .254 ranks 5th in the league, indicating their strength at the plate. They have hit 167 doubles, placing them 7th in the league, which helps in getting runners in scoring position. With key players like Kyle Stowers, who has 22 home runs, the team has the potential to score big.
The Marlins’ pitching staff, despite some struggles, has managed 18 quality starts, ranking 18th. Sandy Alcantara will start, looking to improve his record. His ability to pitch deep into games can help Miami secure another win against the Padres.
The Lean
The Padres are favored with a moneyline of -143 against the Marlins at +121. The Padres have a strong pitching staff, ranking 4th in ERA and 3rd in batting average against. This gives them an edge over the Marlins, who rank 24th in ERA. My model projects the Padres to win with a score of 5-3.
The total for the game is set at 8.0 runs, with the over at -109 and the under at -111. The Padres’ pitching strength suggests a lower-scoring game. The Marlins’ offense ranks lower in key categories like batting average and home runs. My model projects a total of 8 runs, so the recommendation is to take the under.
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A Duel of Struggling Aces to Decide Padres-Marlins Series
After splitting two tight, one-run games, the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins will play a decisive rubber match on Wednesday night. The finale will feature a fascinating duel between two of the most talented—but currently struggling—starting pitchers in the National League as the San Diego Padres visit the Miami Marlins.
The Alcantara Comeback
The Marlins will hand the ball to their former Cy Young Award winner, Sandy Alcantara (4-9, 7.14 ERA). It has been a difficult season for the right-hander as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. He was hit hard by these same Padres in a start back in May, giving up six runs in just four innings. He is looking to prove he can return to his elite form.
Cease’s Search for Consistency
The Padres will counter with their own ace, Dylan Cease (3-9, 4.64 ERA), who has been on a rollercoaster of his own this season. Cease is coming off a dominant performance against the Nationals where he threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts. However, in the three starts before that, he had a bloated 7.31 ERA. Which version of Cease shows up will be key for San Diego.
The Pitching Matchup
Wednesday’s game is a battle between two former aces who are both desperate for a good start to get their seasons back on track. A look at their numbers shows the challenge each pitcher faces. This matchup is a key topic in our expert betting guide.
| Pitcher | W-L (2025) | ERA (2025) | Career vs. Opponent |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 3-9 | 4.64 | 0-1, 2.45 ERA |
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 4-9 | 7.14 | 2-2, 4.04 ERA |
Arraez is Heating Up
While the starting pitchers have struggled, the Padres’ offense is getting a boost from their three-time batting champion, Luis Arraez. After a slump before the All-Star break, Arraez is hitting .400 on the team’s current road trip. His hot bat at the top of the lineup will be crucial against a tough Marlins team. The scores and odds for this game will be tight.
For two MLB teams in the thick of the Wild Card race, this rubber match is huge. To see which struggling ace our experts think will bounce back, check out our daily MLB picks.
