Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions May 18th 2025

Rays, Marlins Close “Citrus Bowl” Series With Mirror-Image Rebuilds

There’s more than just geography tying the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins together. As the two Florida-based MLB clubs prepare for the rubber match of their “Citrus Bowl” interleague series on Sunday, it’s clear these teams are cut from similar cloth.

Both rank in the bottom five of MLB payrolls, with the Rays at No. 28 ($90.4M) and the Marlins at No. 29 ($67.3M), according to Spotrac. Yet they consistently punch above their financial weight, using savvy scouting, aggressive trades, and sharp player development to compete.

And both share a front-office connection in Peter Bendix, Miami’s current president of baseball operations, who previously served as GM of the Rays during their most successful stretch (five consecutive playoff appearances from 2019-2023).

Rebuilding in Tandem

Bendix took over in Miami before the 2024 season and immediately began shaping the roster in Tampa Bay’s image—flipping veterans like Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., A.J. Puk, and Trevor Rogers for high-upside prospects.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is trying to regain its postseason edge after finishing 80-82 in 2023—its first non-playoff year since 2018.

“They’re doing what we are—trying to squeeze value out of every spot,” said Marlins manager Clayton McCullough, who was hired by Bendix. “They develop guys and get the most out of their 26-man roster.”

Sunday’s Pitching Matchup: Baz vs. Quantrill

The finale features a pair of right-handed starters looking to find consistency:

• Shane Baz (3-2, 5.02 ERA) starts for the Rays. The 25-year-old has rediscovered his form after missing all of 2023 due to elbow surgery. He’s striking out 9.6 batters per nine innings and recently regained velocity on his 96 mph fastball.
• Cal Quantrill (2-4, 7.00 ERA) counters for Miami. Despite owning a 2.31 ERA in four career outings vs. Tampa Bay, Quantrill has failed to complete six innings in any of his eight 2024 starts.

Baz made his lone start against Miami in September 2021, pitching 5 2/3 scoreless innings with nine strikeouts.

Quantrill, on the other hand, has been ineffective this year, posting zero quality starts while allowing at least four earned runs in five of his eight appearances.

Check out strikeout props and ERA splits on our MLB Odds Page.

Kyle Stowers Is Carrying the Marlins’ Offense

Kyle Stowers, a 27-year-old left fielder, has been one of MLB’s most unexpected early-season breakout stories. After arriving from the Orioles in July 2024, he now leads the Marlins in nearly every major offensive category:

• Batting Average: .304
• Home Runs: 10
• RBIs: 30
• Runs: 23
• On-Base Percentage: .379

“Be on time, give myself space, and commit to my plan,” Stowers said of his success. “It sounds simple, but that’s the secret sauce.”

A second-round pick in 2019, Stowers has found comfort in Miami’s low-pressure environment and is now the centerpiece of their midseason lineup.

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Chandler Simpson Gives Rays a Unique Spark

The Rays have their own breakout rookie in Chandler Simpson, a speed-first outfielder who’s quietly emerging as an infield-hit machine.

Simpson, 24, is hitting .301 with nine steals in just 25 games, and he already leads the Rays with 10 infield singles.

Though his slugging percentage is low, his contact skills and base-stealing prowess make him a disruptive leadoff option. In the minors, Simpson stole 198 bases over the past two seasons and hit .324.

“He doesn’t hit homers,” said Rays manager Kevin Cash, “but he changes games with his legs.”

Simpson left Saturday’s 4-0 win after taking a blow to the head and lip while sliding into home plate but is expected to be fine.

Sunday Rubber Match Carries More Than Bragging Rights

The Marlins are in a clear rebuild under Bendix, while the Rays are trying to regain their postseason identity after falling short last year.

With top prospects in place, veteran contracts cleared, and promising young arms like Baz getting innings, both teams are using this season to evaluate and develop for the future.

“This is a series where we want to measure ourselves,” said McCullough. “It’s not just about Florida bragging rights. It’s about building a culture.”

Key Stats and Trends

• Rays Payroll: $90.4M (28th in MLB)
• Marlins Payroll: $67.3M (29th in MLB)
• Stowers (MIA): .304 AVG, 10 HR, 30 RBI
• Simpson (TB): .301 AVG, 9 SB in 25 games
• Baz (TB): 9.6 K/9, 0.00 ERA vs. MIA in career
• Quantrill (MIA): 2.31 ERA vs. TB in 4 appearances
• Rays lead all MLB teams in infield hits (Simpson: 10)
• Marlins have traded 6 core players since March 2024

FAQs

What time is the Marlins vs. Rays finale on Sunday?
The game starts at 1:10 PM ET in Miami.

Who is Peter Bendix and why is he important to this series?
Bendix was Tampa Bay’s GM and is now the Marlins’ President of Baseball Ops. He’s brought a Rays-style philosophy to Miami.

Is Chandler Simpson expected to play Sunday?
Yes. After being shaken up Saturday, he’s expected to be available, according to manager Kevin Cash.

Who is leading the Marlins offensively?
Kyle Stowers leads the team in average, HRs, RBIs, OBP, and runs scored.

Which pitcher has the edge in the finale?
Shane Baz, who has a better ERA, strikeout rate, and past success against Miami.

Where can I find betting picks for this game?
Visit our MLB Picks Page for expert picks, betting trends, and prop bets.