Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Predictions May 18th 2025

Preview of Today’s Twins vs. Brewers Finale

Sunday’s series finale in Milwaukee brings a thrilling showdown: the surging Minnesota Twins chase their 14th straight win, while the Brewers desperately need an offensive spark. This matchup is as much about pitching duels as it is about streaks, stats and savvy bets. Whether you’re in it for the drama or the dollars, here’s a modern, conversational breakdown of everything you need before first pitch.

Pitching Showdown: Peralta vs. Matthews

Freddy Peralta (4–3, 2.66 ERA) toes the rubber for Milwaukee, looking to snap a four-game scoreless skid and halt Minnesota’s momentum. Across the mound, 24-year-old Zebby Matthews—fresh off a 1.93 ERA in seven Triple-A starts—earns his first big-league nod. Matthews’s ride through High Class-A to Triple-A spotlighted his fastball command and poise under pressure.

On paper, Peralta’s career numbers against the Twins (0–0, 2.84 ERA in six games) give him an edge. He’s also tossed six shutout innings here before. But Minnesota’s offense, rolling through 33 scoreless innings, has shown it can back rookie arms with timely hits. For the latest expert recommendations, check our MLB picks page.

Minnesota’s Historic Winning Streak

The 13-game run ties the second-longest in franchise history since the move from Washington, D.C., in 1961—just behind the 1991 club that won 15 straight on the way to a World Series title. Saturday’s 7–0 victory highlighted balanced production: Ryan Jeffers and Kody Clemens went deep, while Pablo López dazzled over six innings of two-hit ball.

The Twins have now blanked opponents three times in a row for the first time since 2004. Manager Rocco Baldelli summed it up nicely: “I prefer to let them keep playing the way they’re playing and pitching the way they’re pitching.” Despite the league taking notice, Minnesota’s approach remains simple: attack early, mix in high-leverage arms, and turn the page quickly.

Brewing Up an Offense Problem

If Minnesota’s hitting machine is humming, Milwaukee’s lineup feels stuck in neutral. The Brewers have been shut out four times in five games, mustering just three singles in Saturday’s loss. They loaded the bases with one out in the seventh but couldn’t push a run across—a snapshot of their frustration.

Key bats are slumping: Christian Yelich is batting .196, Joey Ortiz sits at .174, and April call-up Caleb Durbin is 0-for-21 in his last dozen games. “We stink right now as an offense, and that’s just the reality of it,” admitted first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Salvaging this series will take more than talent; it’ll require a mental reset and sharper situational hitting.

Deep Dive into Team Statistics

Beyond the headlines, these numbers tell the story:

• Minnesota ranks top-5 in MLB in run differential (+52) over the last two weeks.
• Milwaukee’s strikeout rate among batters is up 20% month-to-date, the highest in the National League.

Even digging into advanced metrics, the Twins’ expected batting average (.275 xBA) beats the Brewers’ by 30 points. For full team profiles, rosters and splits, hit up our team stats page.

Betting Strategy and Odds

Oddsmakers have set the Twins as modest favorites, reflecting their hot stretch and Milwaukee’s offensive woes. Current lines on our MLB odds page show Minnesota at –135, with Peralta as the +120 underdog in the matchup market.

Two modern betting angles:

1. Under Total Runs: With two elite arms on the hill and recent shutout trends, expect fewer than six runs.
2. First Pitch Over/Under: Targeting the game’s pace, the over on first-pitch timing might cash if both starters attack early.

For deeper tactics and situational plays—like leveraging bullpen matchups—our expert betting guide breaks down advanced models and prop-bet opportunities.

Stay Ahead of the Diamond

MLB Data & Insights

Get Free Trial

What to Watch in the Finale

Keep an eye on Byron Buxton’s return timeline. The two-time All-Star was placed on the seven-day concussion IL after Thursday’s collision and could return in time for the stretch run. Minnesota’s call-up of “McCrusher” Carson McCusker, sporting a .350 average and 10 homers in Triple-A, adds intrigue on both the lineup and the farm system’s depth.

If Peralta can channel his road success or Matthews showcases Rookie of the Year potential, this game could flip from an expected bullpen showdown into an all-hands affair.

Expert Insights for Your Bets

Veteran bettors will tell you that streaks matter—but context matters more. The Twins’ dominance reflects both talent and timing: they face weak bullpens and leverage left-right splits effectively. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s offense needs resets more than tweaks.

To stay ahead:

• Focus on live odds shifts once the starter pulls early.
• Monitor weather and stadium factors; Saturday’s wind patterns played into the shutouts.

Ready to lock in your play? Swing by our MLB picks page for real-time updates, or bookmark the expert betting guide to level up your strategy. Have fun, bet responsibly, and enjoy what promises to be an electric finale in Milwaukee.