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Mets vs Brewers Prediction: Can Milwaukee Stay Hot Behind Woodruff?
The Milwaukee Brewers return home Friday, August 8, 2025, to host the New York Mets at American Family Field in the opener of a three-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 PM ET, with clear skies and a light breeze in the forecast.
Milwaukee (70-44) has won six straight and nine of its last ten, becoming the first MLB team to reach 70 wins. New York (63-52), meanwhile, has dropped eight of nine and sits 2.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East.
The Brewers are slight favorites at -126 on the moneyline, with the Mets at +107. The run line is Brewers -1.5 (+168) / Mets +1.5 (-201), and the total is 8.0 runs (O +101 / U -121).
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Mets Can Win If…
Kodai Senga returns to form and shuts down Milwaukee’s red-hot bats. The right-hander (7-3, 2.31 ERA) has allowed four runs or fewer in seven straight starts, though he hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning in any of his three July outings.
Pete Alonso (25 HR, 91 RBI) is one swing away from tying Darryl Strawberry’s franchise home run record, and Juan Soto remains a game-changer despite the team’s recent .189 batting average slump.
New York’s pitching staff is a bright spot, ranking 6th in ERA (3.69) and 2nd in fewest home runs allowed (102). If Senga keeps the ball in the park and the Mets’ lineup wakes up, they can snap their skid.
“There’s a sense of urgency,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “We will find ways to get out of this.”
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Brewers Can Win If…
Brandon Woodruff keeps dominating. The righty (3-0, 2.22 ERA) has held opponents to a .141 batting average since returning from injury and owns a 37-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 28.1 innings. He’s 18-3 with a 2.33 ERA in his last 37 starts dating back to 2022.
Milwaukee ranks 3rd in batting average (.257) and 3rd in OBP (.328), with Andrew Vaughn hitting .377 in his first 22 games as a Brewer and extending his hitting streak to 12 games. Christian Yelich and William Contreras remain consistent run producers.
“Each time I get out there, I just try to win the day,” Woodruff said after his last victory.
If Woodruff gets run support early, Milwaukee’s bullpen can slam the door.
Key MLB Betting Trends
| Trend Type | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Form | 9-1 in last 10 games | 2-8 in last 10 games |
| Run Line Record | Covered in 7 of last 9 wins | Failed to cover in 7 of last 8 losses |
| Total (O/U) | Over is 4-1 in last 5 games | Over is 6-3 in last 9 games |
| Head-to-Head | Won 4 of last 5 vs Mets | Lost last 3 in Milwaukee |
The Lean
The Mets’ struggles at the plate meet a Brewers team firing on all cylinders. While Senga is capable of keeping it close, Woodruff’s recent dominance and Milwaukee’s balanced offense make the Brewers the better side.
Prediction: Brewers 5, Mets 4
Best Bet: Brewers ML (-126)
Bonus Lean: Over 8.0 (+101)
For full box scores, recaps, and results from every MLB game this season, check our MLB game results page.
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