Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Predictions May 19th 2025

Twins Open Series Against Guardians After Ending 13-Game Streak

Minnesota returns to Target Field Monday night with something unfamiliar on their minds: bouncing back from a loss. After rattling off 13 straight wins, the Twins fell 5–2 to the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday—snapping the league’s longest active win streak.

Now, they’ll aim to start a new run against an American League Central rival that’s having trouble finding the win column.

A New Challenge at Home

The last time the Twins lost was May 2. In that span, they’ve powered through elite pitching, hit timely home runs, and played shutdown defense. Though Sunday’s loss stung, manager Rocco Baldelli was proud of the club’s two-week dominance.

“This was just a great run of baseball,” Baldelli said. “One of the best two-week spans of baseball I’ve ever been a part of.”

While the win streak is over, the momentum isn’t. Minnesota is 9-2 at home over the last 11 games and looks to continue that trend behind Bailey Ober.

Twins Probable Starter: Bailey Ober (4–1, 3.72 ERA)

Ober has been a consistent weapon for Minnesota. The 6’9” righty hasn’t taken a loss since March 30 and holds a 3-2 record with a sharp 2.05 ERA across nine career starts vs. Cleveland.

He’s coming off two no-decisions but has allowed just four runs over his last 12 1/3 innings. His 40 strikeouts in 48+ innings speak to his ability to command the zone and force weak contact.

Guardians’ Struggles Continue

The Guardians are on a four-game losing skid and were just swept by the Cincinnati Reds. Offense has been their weak spot: they scored just five total runs across three games in Cincy and failed to hit the timely bombs needed to shift momentum.

“They got a couple big hits and we didn’t,” said Cleveland skipper Stephen Vogt. “Frustrating weekend. You feel like you could’ve won every game.”

Still, Cleveland remains within striking distance in the AL Central and has a favorable pitching matchup in Monday’s opener.

Guardians Probable Starter: Logan Allen (2–2, 3.70 ERA)

Logan Allen is coming off one of his best outings of 2024—six scoreless innings against the Brewers. The lefty allowed just three hits and struck out seven, flashing strong command with both his changeup and cutter.

His history against Minnesota is even more encouraging:

• 3 starts
• 2–0 record
• 2.04 ERA
• 14 Ks in 17 2/3 innings

That could set up a tight pitcher’s duel to open the series.

For real-time odds and betting breakdowns, check the MLB odds page to find the latest moneyline and totals updates.

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Royce Lewis Heating Up at the Plate

Third baseman Royce Lewis has added a spark since returning from a hamstring injury. He homered on Sunday, and although the Twins fell short, his swing looks dialed in.

“He looks really twitchy at the plate,” Baldelli said. “The bat’s whistling through the zone.”

Lewis’ timing is crucial as Minnesota heads into a series that could tighten or widen the AL Central gap.

Betting Angles and Trends

Twins at Home:

• 9-2 in last 11 at Target Field
• Averaging 5.1 runs per game at home

Guardians on the Road:

• 2-5 in last seven away games
• Averaging just 3.3 runs per game

Here are two betting angles to monitor:

• Under 8.5 Total Runs: With Allen and Ober both locked in, the under has strong value if both offenses start slow.
• Twins First Five Innings Moneyline: Backing Ober early could be the safer play given Cleveland’s slow starts lately.

To get sharper with your plays, check our MLB picks page and consult the expert betting guide for more focused data.

Series Outlook

This is a series with meaning. Minnesota is trying to reassert itself at the top of the division, while Cleveland wants to get back on track and shake off a rough road stretch. With Ober’s track record and Logan Allen’s recent form, Game 1 promises a tight battle.

Beyond the game, stay tuned for insights on lineups, matchups, and injuries through our full team stats page, where you can dive into player trends and advanced stats.

Whether you’re backing a bounce-back or riding the underdog upset, this AL Central clash is one to circle—and one that could shift the balance in the standings by week’s end.