Twins Chase Series Win After Bader Walk-Off vs. Rays

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays July 5th 2025

The Tampa Bay Rays will visit the Minnesota Twins at Target Field in Minneapolis on Saturday, July 5, 2025. The game is scheduled for an afternoon start at 2:10 PM and will be broadcast on FDSSU. Fans attending should prepare for a warm day with a light breeze and the possibility of light rain.

The Rays, managed by Kevin Cash, have a season record of 48-40 and are 2 games back in the AL East. They have performed well on the road with a 20-15 record. The Twins, led by Rocco Baldelli, have a 42-46 record and are 12 games back in the AL Central. They have a solid home record of 23-17. Taj Bradley will start for the Rays, while the Twins have yet to announce their starter.

Rays vs Twins Key Information

Sport: Baseball
Teams: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins
Venue: Target Field in Minneapolis, MN
Date: Saturday, July 5, 2025
Betting Odds: Rays Moneyline -128, Twins Moneyline +108, Rays Runline -1.5 (+121), Twins Runline +1.5 (-146), Total Over 9.5 (-106), Total Under 9.5 (-114)

The Rays Can Win If…

The Tampa Bay Rays recently lost a close game to the Minnesota Twins, 4-3. Zack Littell pitched well, allowing just one earned run over six innings. Key hitters like Yandy Díaz and Josh Lowe contributed with RBIs, showing that the Rays can generate runs even in tight games.

The Rays have a strong team batting average of .258, ranking 2nd in the league. Their ability to steal bases is unmatched, with 115 stolen bases, placing them 1st. This speed on the bases can create scoring opportunities and put pressure on the opposing defense.

Junior Caminero leads the Rays with 21 home runs, ranking 8th in the league. Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz also provide power, adding to the team’s offensive strength. With Taj Bradley on the mound, the Rays will look to capitalize on his ability to limit runs and give their hitters a chance to secure a win.

The Twins Can Win If…

The Minnesota Twins recently won a close game against the Tampa Bay Rays, 4-3. Harrison Bader was a standout player, hitting two home runs and driving in two runs. Chris Paddack pitched five innings, allowing two earned runs with five strikeouts, which helped secure the win.

The Twins have a solid home run count this season, with 99 homers ranking them 13th in the league. They also have 136 doubles, showing their ability to get extra-base hits. Their pitching staff has limited home runs, giving up 92, which is 10th best in the league.

Key players like Byron Buxton and Willi Castro have been consistent. Buxton has 19 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Castro has a .274 batting average. With their strong lineup and recent performance, the Twins are in a good position to win their next game against the Rays.

The Lean

The Rays are favored with a moneyline of -128 against the Twins at +108. The Rays have a higher batting average and a better ERA, which suggests they have the edge. My model projects the Rays to win 5-4, making them a solid pick to win straight up.

The total for the game is set at 9.5, with the over at -106 and the under at -114. Given the pitching stats and my model’s projected score of 5-4, I recommend taking the under. Both teams have decent pitching, which should keep the total below 9.5 runs.

Series Momentum

The Minnesota Twins aim to carry the energy from Harrison Bader’s dramatic walk-off homer into Saturday’s contest against the Tampa Bay Rays. Bader’s solo shot in the bottom of the ninth not only secured a 4-3 victory to open the series but also sparked the clubhouse on the Fourth of July. This season-long homestand has been critical for Minnesota to build momentum as they head into the second half, and our latest MLB previews highlighted this matchup as a key opportunity for the Twins to string wins together.

Rays Injury Concerns

Tampa Bay is grappling with more than just a skid—new acquisition Ha-Seong Kim exited Friday’s debut after a right calf issue. While Kim downplayed the severity, calling Friday’s run to third his first sign of trouble, the Rays will monitor him closely before Saturday’s game. For bettors navigating lineup uncertainties like this, our comprehensive MLB expert betting guide offers strategies on adjusting can’t-miss wagers when key players’ statuses are in flux.

Pitching Matchup

On the mound, Rays right-hander Taj Bradley (5-6, 4.79 ERA) looks to rebound from his recent five-run outing against Baltimore, while Minnesota has yet to name a starter following Bailey Ober’s placement on the injured list. Bradley hasn’t beaten the Twins in four career starts, posting an 0-2 record with a 4.38 ERA, including his last seven-inning, two-earned-run performance on May 27. To see which handicappers are backing this pitching duel, check our best handicappers leaderboard for up-to-date expert consensus.

Twins Rotation Shuffle

With Ober sidelined by a left hip impingement, Minnesota will shuffle its rotation—likely promoting a bullpen arm or calling up fresh arms to fill the gap. Chris Paddack, fresh off praising the team’s comeback, will rely on his teammates’ revived confidence as he takes the hill. If you’re looking for premium vetted selections ahead of this rotation adjustment, our buy picks service offers game-by-game recommendations to help you stay ahead.

Betting Outlook

The combination of home-field energy, Tampa Bay’s lineup questions, and uneven recent pitching performances sets the stage for a tightly contested afternoon showdown. Our curated MLB picks lean toward the Twins to edge out a second straight win, but late-game heroics from the Rays can’t be ruled out. Whether you’re wagering the moneyline or considering the run line, these insights should help you make an informed play.

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions July 5th 2025