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New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians August 4th 2025
The Cleveland Guardians will visit the New York Mets at Citi Field on Monday night. The Guardians hold a record of 56-55 and are second in the AL Central. They come off a loss and have a 5-5 record in their last 10 games. Slade Cecconi will start for the Guardians with an ERA of 3.77.
The New York Mets also rank second in their division, the NL East, with a record of 63-49. They have a strong home record of 38-18. Their starting pitcher, Sean Manaea, has an impressive ERA of 2.08. Both teams aim to get back on track after recent losses. The game will be played under clear skies with a warm temperature and a calm crosswind.
Guardians vs Mets Key Information
- Sport: Baseball
- Teams: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Mets
- Venue: Citi Field in New York, NY
- Date: Monday, August 4, 2025
- Betting Odds: Guardians Moneyline +151, Mets Moneyline -179, Guardians Runline +1.5 (-140), Mets Runline -1.5 (+117), Total Over 8.5 (-109), Total Under 8.5 (-110)
The Guardians Can Win If…
The Cleveland Guardians are coming off a close 5-4 loss to the Minnesota Twins. Despite the loss, José Ramírez had a solid performance with a home run and two RBIs. Daniel Schneemann also contributed with three hits, showing the depth in the Guardians’ lineup.
The Guardians have shown they can hit well, with 10 hits in each of their last two games. Their ability to produce extra-base hits, including home runs, is a strength. This offensive capability can be a key factor in their game against the New York Mets.
Slade Cecconi will take the mound for the Guardians with a 3.77 ERA. His ability to control the game can give the Guardians an edge. With a lineup that includes players like Ramírez and Schneemann, they have the tools to support Cecconi and aim for a win.
The Mets Can Win If…
The New York Mets are looking to bounce back after a 12-4 loss to the San Francisco Giants. In that game, Francisco Alvarez showed promise with two hits and two RBIs. Francisco Lindor also contributed with a solo home run, highlighting his consistent performance.
The Mets have several stats that show their potential to win. They rank 8th in home runs with 138 this season, showcasing their power. Their pitching staff has an ERA of 3.69, which ranks 5th, indicating strong pitching depth.
Sean Manaea will start for the Mets, and his impressive ERA of 2.08 and WHIP of 0.86 make him a strong presence on the mound. The lineup includes Pete Alonso, who leads the team with 24 home runs and 86 RBIs. With these players, the Mets have a good chance to secure a win against the Cleveland Guardians.
The Lean
The Mets are favored on the moneyline at -179. The Guardians are listed at +151. The Mets have a stronger batting lineup, with a higher batting average and more home runs. The projected score is Mets 5, Guardians 3. Based on these factors, the recommendation is to pick the Mets to win straight up.
The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs, with the over at -109 and the under at -110. The Mets’ and Guardians’ pitching stats suggest a lower-scoring game. The projected total score is 8 runs. The recommendation is to take the under for this game.
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For Starters, Mets Need More Innings as Surging Guardians Visit
For the New York Mets, the problem is simple, but the solution has been elusive. Their starting pitchers cannot provide any length, a crippling issue that has taxed their bullpen and been a primary driver of their recent struggles. As they return home on Monday night to open a three-game series against the surging Cleveland Guardians, the mission for the New York Mets and their starting pitcher, Sean Manaea, is clear: they desperately need to get deeper into the game.
The Innings-Eater Dilemma
The Mets are in a difficult cycle. A rash of injuries has decimated their starting rotation, with Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill, and Kodai Senga all spending significant time on the injured list this season. Those who have returned, like Manaea and Frankie Montas, have been on strict pitch counts as they work their way back from their own long-term injuries. The result has been a series of short starts that have put an immense and unsustainable burden on the bullpen. In the last 20 games, a Mets starter not named David Peterson has failed to complete the sixth inning. After a brilliant performance from their bullpen on Saturday, manager Carlos Mendoza was forced to go to a “mop-up” reliever early in Sunday’s 12-4 loss after another short start.
“It starts with starting pitching,” a frustrated Mendoza said. “We were able to match up (Saturday), ended up winning the game. But back-to-back games (with short starts), that’s almost impossible.” Manaea, who has yet to exceed five innings or 86 pitches in any of his four starts this season, will be under pressure to break that trend on Monday.
The statistical comparison of these two clubs shows two teams that have been trending in very different directions since the beginning of July.
| Team | Record (Since July 7) | Runs Per Game | Team ERA |
| New York Mets | 9-15 | 4.1 | 5.25 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 16-7 | 5.5 | 3.10 |
The Guardians have been superior in every facet of the game over the past month, which is a testament to their resilience. The pitching matchup on Monday, however, will be a crucial test for both sides.
Threading the Needle: Cleveland’s Unlikely Playoff Hunt
While the Mets are trying to survive, the Guardians are thriving. They have engineered a remarkable mid-season turnaround, going 16-7 since July 7 to climb right back into the thick of the American League wild-card race. Their success is even more impressive given their strategy at the trade deadline. In a classic “threading the needle” approach, the front office traded away key veterans like former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber and reliever Paul Sewald, but they held on to their core pieces, most notably All-Star leadoff hitter Steven Kwan. It was a clear message that while they have an eye on the future, they also believe in the current group.
“There are a lot of different considerations that we had to weigh,” Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said of the team’s deadline strategy. “But in the end, I think we feel good about the roster that we have for the balance of 2025 and are excited about our future.” The team has also had to navigate the unexpected distraction of their closer, Emmanuel Clase, and another starter, Luis Ortiz, being placed on the restricted list due to MLB gambling investigations. Despite these challenges, the Guardians continue to win.
The Pitching Matchup: A Deeper Look
Monday’s game features a fascinating duel between two pitchers at different points in their season. The Mets will send out the veteran lefty Manaea (1-1, 2.08 ERA), who has been effective in his return from injury but has not been able to provide the length his team needs. The Guardians will counter with right-hander Slade Cecconi (5-7, 3.77), a young pitcher who has been a solid and reliable part of their rotation.
| Pitcher | W-L (2025) | ERA (2025) | Career vs. Opponent |
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 1-1 | 2.08 | 3-1, 2.94 ERA |
| Slade Cecconi (CLE) | 5-7 | 3.77 | No Decisions (1 app) |
The Betting Outlook
The scores and odds for this matchup will be interesting, as it pits a struggling Mets team at home against a hot Guardians team on the road. The challenges facing the Mets’ pitching staff is a key topic in our expert betting guide. For more analysis on other games, you can view all of our MLB previews. To see who our experts are backing in this interleague clash, check out our daily MLB picks. To get access to even more premium content and betting tools, you can register for an account today.
