New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Predictions July 3rd 2025

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers July 3rd 2025

The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Citi Field to take on the New York Mets on Thursday, July 3, 2025. The game is set for a 7:10 PM start under the clear night sky. Fans can catch the action on SNY as the teams meet in an NL showdown.

The Brewers, managed by Pat Murphy, come into the game with a 48-38 record. They are 3 games behind in the NL Central. On the mound for Milwaukee is Jose Quintana, who holds a 6-2 record with a 3.30 ERA. The Mets, led by Carlos Mendoza, have a 49-38 record and are 2 games back in the NL East. David Peterson will start for the Mets, sporting a 5-4 record and a 3.30 ERA.

Brewers vs Mets Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
• Venue: Citi Field in New York, NY
• Date: Thursday, July 3, 2025
• Betting Odds: Brewers Moneyline +133, Mets Moneyline -158

The Brewers Can Win If…

The Milwaukee Brewers recently played against the New York Mets, splitting a doubleheader. In the first game, they won 7-2 with Freddy Peralta pitching six strong innings and Isaac Collins going 4-for-4 with a home run. In the second game, they lost 3-7, but Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio each hit a home run, showing their power at the plate.

The Brewers have been strong in getting on base, ranking 9th in on-base percentage at .320. They also excel in drawing walks, ranking 4th in the league. This patience at the plate can lead to scoring opportunities, especially with power hitters like Christian Yelich, who has 17 home runs this season.

Jose Quintana will start for the Brewers, bringing a solid 3.30 ERA into the game. He has been reliable with a 6-2 record and can keep the Mets’ hitters in check. With support from a lineup featuring Sal Frelick and Rhys Hoskins, the Brewers have the tools to secure a win.

The Mets Can Win If…

The New York Mets are coming off a strong 7-3 win against the Milwaukee Brewers. Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo led the charge with home runs and multiple RBIs. Huascar Brazobán contributed a solid inning on the mound, keeping the Brewers scoreless during his time.

The Mets have a solid team batting average of .243, ranking 14th in the league. They are 7th in on-base percentage at .322 and slugging percentage at .414. Their power is evident with 111 home runs, placing them 5th in the league, which can be a key factor in their success.

David Peterson will start for the Mets, with an ERA of 3.30, matching the Brewers’ Jose Quintana. The Mets’ pitching staff has a strong ERA of 3.52, ranking 5th. With their ability to keep opponents’ batting average low at .236, they have a good chance to control the game.

The Lean

The Mets are favored at -158 on the moneyline. With a strong pitching staff ranked 5th in ERA and 1st in home runs given up, they have an edge. The Brewers’ pitching ranks lower, making the Mets a solid pick. My model projects the Mets to win 5-3.

The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs. Both teams have solid pitching, with the Mets having a slight advantage. Given these factors, the under 8.5 at -122 looks like a good choice. My model projects a total score of 8 runs, supporting the under bet.

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Mets’ Lineup Adjustment Pays Off

Carlos Mendoza’s bold move to bat Brandon Nimmo leadoff in Game 2 paid immediate dividends. Nimmo crushed a second-inning grand slam, sparking New York’s 7–3 victory and snapping a four-game slide. Francisco Lindor followed by driving in the remaining runs as the Mets snapped their four-game skid. For more MLB picks, visit our MLB picks page.

Lindor’s Resurgence Breaks the Slump

Francisco Lindor entered the night mired in a 2-for-30 drought but swung freely after Nimmo’s slam. He belted a solo homer in the third inning, added an RBI single in the sixth and capped his night with a run-scoring double in the eighth. His three RBIs illustrated how one big swing can unstick a slump. Learn how to make the most of these matchups with our expert betting guide.

Milwaukee’s Early Momentum

The Brewers grabbed the headlines in Game 1 of Wednesday’s doubleheader. Joey Ortiz delivered a sixth-inning grand slam, while Brice Turang extended his career-best hitting streak to 14 games with an RBI double. Milwaukee’s early fireworks underscored its resilience, even as the Mets roared back in the nightcap. If you’re looking to buy professional picks, check out our buy picks page.

Quintana Returns to Queens

Thursday’s rubber match features former Met José Quintana facing his old teammates in New York. Quintana, now 6–2 with a 3.30 ERA, battled through a shoulder impingement but earned his second straight win last start. He’ll oppose David Peterson, who surrendered five runs in each of his last two outings and seeks a bounce-back performance. For a full series preview, see our MLB series previews.

Handicapping Insights and Series Outlook

With the Mets chasing their first series win after an 11-game drought, bettors will be watching momentum swings closely. New York’s newfound power at Citi Field could shift the lines, and Milwaukee’s depth won’t make this easy. Follow the top performers and update your strategy using our handicappers leaderboard.