New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions September 18th 2025

Padres vs Mets Picks and Predictions — September 18, 2025

The San Diego Padres and New York Mets meet Thursday afternoon at Citi Field in a battle of NL playoff hopefuls. The Padres (83-69) sit second in the NL West, winning six of their last ten. The Mets (78-74) are second in the NL East but slumping with just two wins in their last ten games. San Diego claimed a 7-4 victory in the series opener, as shown in the latest MLB results, behind Manny Machado’s four-RBI performance.

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Opening odds:

• Moneyline: Mets −133, Padres +113
• Runline: Mets −1.5 (+149), Padres +1.5 (−177)
• Total (Over/Under): 9.0 runs

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Padres Can Win If…

• Randy Vásquez provides quality innings. With a 3.72 ERA, he gives the Padres stability against a Mets lineup that thrives on power.
• The offense continues producing. San Diego ranks 6th in batting average (.252) and showed balance with 12 hits and two homers in Wednesday’s win.
• Stars shine. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado remain the key difference-makers, with Machado driving in four runs last game.

“We know our lineup has the ability to put up crooked numbers quickly,” Padres players emphasized after the win.

Mets Can Win If…

• Their lineup flexes its power. The Mets rank 3rd in MLB with 211 homers, and Pete Alonso (36 HR, 119 RBIs) plus Francisco Lindor (105 runs scored) keep them dangerous.
• The pitching stabilizes. Facing Vásquez, the Mets need a better showing after their starter struggled with an 8.49 ERA in his last appearance.
• Timely hitting complements the long ball. With a top-four OBP (.326), the Mets must string together rallies instead of relying only on solo homers.

“We know our offense can carry us, but it starts with better execution,” Mets manager Terry Francona said postgame.

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

Pick: Mets Moneyline (−133)
Projected Final Score: Mets 5, Padres 3
Total Lean: Under 9.0

Reasoning: The Mets’ bats remain a threat even through their slump, with Alonso and Lindor anchoring one of MLB’s most powerful lineups. The Padres’ pitching is steadier, but New York’s offensive ceiling combined with home-field advantage points to a bounce-back win. With both rotations capable of limiting damage, the under 9.0 is the sharper total play.

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