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Mets vs Giants Prediction: Can Montas Outduel Whisenhunt in Series Finale?
The San Francisco Giants (55–56) head to Citi Field to face the New York Mets (63–48) on Sunday, August 3, 2025, in the rubber match of their three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM ET on MLBN, with New York favored at -159 and the Giants listed at +134. Warm, clear weather is expected in Queens.
After splitting the first two games, the Mets look to ride the momentum of Saturday’s 12–6 victory, sparked by Pete Alonso’s three-run homer and key contributions from Lindor, Nimmo, and newcomer Cedric Mullins. Read full MLB recaps here.
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San Francisco Giants Can Win If…
The Giants were outslugged Saturday but showed signs of life at the plate with 10 hits and homers from Willy Adames and Dominic Smith. With Rafael Devers anchoring the order and the club ranking fourth in walks drawn, San Francisco is capable of generating runs through patient, situational offense.
The key will be rookie Carson Whisenhunt, making just his second MLB start. If he can provide length and limit damage early, the bullpen has enough depth to keep the game tight. Their team ERA of 3.72 ranks seventh league-wide.
“We still have good pitching. It all comes down to executing,” Giants DH Wilmer Flores said.
New York Mets Can Win If…
The Mets snapped a four-game skid with a power surge Saturday, led by a top-heavy lineup that includes Alonso, Lindor, and Nimmo. New addition Cedric Mullins sparked a go-ahead rally, and New York’s upgraded bullpen held strong over the final innings.
With a 38–17 home record and a .320 OBP (8th in MLB), New York has the on-base depth to outlast inconsistent pitching. While starter Frankie Montas brings a 5.46 ERA, he’s been successful against the Giants historically.
“There’s no one way to win a ballgame. I think this squad is really dynamic,” Alonso said postgame.
Pitching Matchup Comparison
| Pitcher | Team | W-L (2025) | ERA (2025) | Strikeouts | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas | NYM | 3–1 | 5.46 | 39 (in 47.2 IP) | 1.43 |
| Carson Whisenhunt | SF | 0–0 | 7.20 | 4 (in 5 IP) | 1.40 |
Key MLB Betting Trends
- Giants are 3–7 in their last 10 games
- Mets are 38–17 at home
- Giants haven’t won consecutive games since July 23
- Under is 7–3 in the Mets’ last 10 home games
The Lean
The Mets are in a better position to close this series with a win. They have more offensive depth, a rested bullpen, and a strong home record. My model projects a 5–3 Mets victory, making the New York moneyline (-159) the top play.
With both starters carrying ERA concerns and bullpen reliability improving, the projected total lands at 8 runs, suggesting value on the under 8.5 (-101).
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