NL ERA Leader Kodai Senga Takes the Hill as Mets Pursue Nationals Sweep

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals June 12th 2025

The Washington Nationals travel to Citi Field to take on the New York Mets on Thursday, June 12, 2025. The game is set for an afternoon start at 1:10 PM and will be broadcast on MASN. The weather is expected to be clear, with a mild day and a light breeze.

The Nationals, managed by Dave Martinez, have a 30-37 record this season. They are 13 games behind in the NL East. Michael Soroka will start on the mound for the Nationals, bringing a 4.87 ERA and a 3-3 record. The Mets, led by Carlos Mendoza, hold a strong 44-24 record. Kodai Senga, with a 1.59 ERA, will start for the Mets, who have been dominant at home with a 26-7 record.

Nationals vs Mets Key Information

Sport: Baseball
Teams: Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Venue: Citi Field in New York, NY
Date: Thursday, June 12, 2025
Betting Odds: Mets MoneyLine -247, Nationals MoneyLine +204

The Nationals Can Win If…

The Washington Nationals are looking to bounce back after their recent 5-0 loss to the New York Mets. In that game, Luis García Jr. and James Wood each had two hits, showing they can still connect at the plate. Michael Soroka, who will start the next game, has a solid ERA of 4.87 and could help the Nationals keep the game close.

The Nationals have some key stats that suggest they can win. They rank 8th in doubles with 111 and have a strong stolen base record, ranking 9th with 57 steals. Their ability to create scoring opportunities with speed and extra-base hits can give them an edge.

CJ Abrams and Nathaniel Lowe are crucial to the Nationals’ offense. Abrams has a batting average of .264 with 9 home runs, while Lowe has driven in 42 runs. If these players perform well, the Nationals have a chance to put runs on the board and secure a win.

The Mets Can Win If…

The New York Mets are coming off a strong 5-0 win against the Washington Nationals. David Peterson pitched a complete game, allowing no runs and striking out six batters. Brandon Nimmo and Juan Soto both contributed with home runs, helping to secure the victory.

The Mets’ offense has been effective, ranking 5th in slugging percentage with .426. Pete Alonso leads the team with 17 home runs and 63 RBIs. Their ability to hit for power makes them a threat in any game.

The Mets’ pitching staff has been a key factor, holding the best ERA in the league at 2.85. Kodai Senga, with an ERA of 1.59, will start the next game, giving the Mets a strong chance to win. The team’s balanced performance in both hitting and pitching positions them well for another victory.

The Lean

The Mets are the favorites with a moneyline of -247. The Nationals are the underdogs at +204. Given the Mets’ strong pitching, with a league-best ERA of 2.85, and higher ranks in batting stats, the recommendation is to pick the Mets to win. The model projects a score of Mets 5, Nationals 3.

The over/under line is set at 8.0. The model projects a total score of 8, which aligns with the set line. Considering the Mets’ top pitching and the Nationals’ lower batting stats, the recommendation is to pick the under. This suggests a lower-scoring game is likely.

Mets’ Ace Kodai Senga on the Mound

Kodai Senga, the National League ERA leader at 1.59, takes the ball Thursday afternoon as the New York Mets aim to sweep the Washington Nationals in the finale of a three-game set. Senga has been dominant all season, and his pinpoint splitter and high-velocity fastball give New York its best chance at a series-clinching victory. For a deeper look at this matchup, check out our MLB series preview.

Rotation Depth Fuels Consistency

Behind Senga, the Mets boast a staff ERA of 2.84—the best in the majors. David Peterson recorded New York’s first complete game of 2025 in Wednesday’s 5–0 win, scattering six hits and striking out six to lower his ERA to 2.49. Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning round out a group that is 29–14 in 64 starts. Even without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas on the active roster, manager Carlos Mendoza has leaned on a deep rotation that has allowed four earned runs or fewer in 67 of 68 games.

Nationals’ Offense in a Slump

Washington’s bats have gone silent in June. The Nationals are 2–7 this month with a .194 batting average, .236 on-base percentage and .294 slugging percentage. They’ve been shut out twice and held to two runs or fewer in five other games. Manager Dave Martinez urged his hitters to “start taking our walks and use the middle of the field,” but through seven games their offense remains one of baseball’s lowest outputs.

Betting Insights and Expert Picks

New York’s pitching dominance and Washington’s offensive struggles make low-scoring markets and Mets moneyline wagers appealing. Our expert MLB picks favor the “Under” on total runs and the home side on the moneyline, while the MLB betting guide offers strategy on strikeout props for Senga. If you’re looking to lock in picks early or secure advice from top analysts, you can purchase picks and track whom to follow on our handicappers leaderboard.

What to Watch

Senga is 0–1 with a 2.65 ERA in three career starts versus Washington, including six innings of two-run ball on April 25. Opposing him is Michael Soroka (3–3, 4.86), who delivered six scoreless frames in his last outing. Keep an eye on early-inning strikeouts and bullpen usage—if Senga can escape the third without damage, the Mets’ relievers should slam the door on the Nationals’ lineup. Good pitching matchups rarely disappoint in Decisive Game scenarios, and Thursday’s finale may be no exception.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions June 12th 2025