New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions September 20th 2025

Nationals vs Mets Picks and Predictions — September 20, 2025

The New York Mets (80-74) continue their push for the final NL Wild Card spot as they host the Washington Nationals (62-92) in the second of a three-game set at Citi Field. The Mets erupted for a six-run fourth inning Friday on their way to a 12-6 win, highlighted by Juan Soto’s 42nd homer and a clutch RBI single from Francisco Lindor.

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Rookie sensation Nolan McLean (4-1, 1.19 ERA) takes the mound for New York, carrying a spotless home ERA into this matchup. Washington counters with fellow rookie Cade Cavalli (3-1, 4.76 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM ET, with clear skies expected.

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The Nationals Can Win If…

The Nationals need Cade Cavalli to deliver his best start yet. In his last outing, Cavalli allowed three runs across five innings against Pittsburgh, and he’ll need to keep the Mets’ big bats in check.

Offensively, CJ Abrams continues to shine, belting a homer and driving in three runs in Friday’s loss. Washington ranks 8th in doubles this season, and extra-base hits from Abrams, Josh Bell, and Daylen Lile could spark an upset.

Interim manager Miguel Cairo remains optimistic:

“It didn’t come our way, but it happens. And I know they’re going to come back (Saturday) and fight again.”

For Washington to steal one, Cavalli must limit damage early and the lineup must take advantage of any mistakes from McLean.

The Mets Can Win If…

The Mets’ offense has caught fire at just the right time, outscoring opponents 35-19 over their last five games. Lindor and Soto remain the engine — combining for five RBIs Friday — while Pete Alonso brings power with 36 homers this season.

McLean has been a revelation, becoming the first pitcher in Mets history to begin his career with three straight scoreless home starts (19 1/3 IP, 11 H, 6 BB, 21 K). His 1.19 ERA through six outings is the lowest ever by a Mets starter.

As Brandon Nimmo explained:

“The guys are really, really battling on the small little things — that includes baserunning, that includes defense, that includes hitting and pitching.”

If McLean continues his dominance and the bats stay hot, New York should secure another crucial win.

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

Model Projection: Mets 5, Nationals 3
Pick: Mets Moneyline (-253)
Total Lean: Under 8.5

McLean’s spotless home ERA and the Mets’ renewed offensive punch give them the edge. The Nationals’ inconsistency at the plate and defensive miscues should prove costly.

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