New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions September 21st 2025

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals September 21st 2025

The Washington Nationals will visit the New York Mets at Citi Field on Sunday, September 21, 2025. The game will start at 1:40 PM and will be broadcast on WPIX. The Nationals have a record of 63-92 and are ranked 5th in the NL East. They are coming off a win but have struggled in their last 10 games, going 3-7.

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The Mets hold a record of 80-75 and are 2nd in the NL East. They recently lost their last game and have a 4-6 record in their last 10 games. The Nationals will start Jake Irvin, who has an ERA of 5.76, while the Mets will counter with Sean Manaea, who has an ERA of 5.40. The weather forecast predicts overcast clouds with a mild breeze at the outdoor field.

Nationals vs Mets Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
• Venue: Citi Field in New York, NY
• Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
• Betting Odds: Nationals Moneyline +218, Mets Moneyline -265, Nationals Runline +1.5 (+104), Mets Runline -1.5 (-124), Total Over 8.5 (-116), Total Under 8.5 (-104)

The Nationals Can Win If…

The Washington Nationals are coming off a 5-3 win against the New York Mets, a game highlighted by Cade Cavalli’s five scoreless innings and Daylen Lile’s three-run home run. That performance showed Washington can both pitch and hit when it matters most.

The Nationals rank 10th in MLB with 252 doubles, proving they can drive the ball for extra bases. With CJ Abrams and Josh Bell combining for 38 home runs this season, Washington’s lineup can generate power in the middle of the order.

Jake Irvin will get the start. His 5.76 ERA suggests inconsistency, but when he commands his pitches, he’s capable of putting up zeros. If he can minimize walks and rely on his defense, Washington has a path to victory.

Starting Pitchers Matchup

The Mets Can Win If…

The New York Mets may have dropped the last contest, but their bats remain dangerous. They collected 11 hits in that 5-3 loss, with Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor all contributing at the plate.

The Mets rank 4th in MLB in home runs (214) and 6th in slugging percentage (.429). Alonso’s 37 home runs give New York game-changing power, while Soto’s ability to get on base fuels rallies.

Sean Manaea gets the start, and though his ERA sits at 5.40, he has shown stretches of dominance. If he controls the strike zone and limits the Nationals’ extra-base hits, New York has the offensive depth to secure the win.

The Lean

The Mets are heavy favorites at -265, while the Nationals sit at +218. New York’s top-10 ranks in both batting average and home runs point to a superior lineup. My model projects a 5-3 Mets win, making the moneyline lean toward the Mets despite limited value at the current price.

The total is set at 8.5 runs. With the Nationals ranking 29th in ERA and the Mets showing better run prevention, my projection of 8 total runs makes the under 8.5 (-104) the best play.

For more matchup insights, check today’s MLB picks.

Recent Form and Playoff Impact

The Mets (80-75) remain in the hunt for the last NL wild-card spot, holding a slim one-game lead over the Reds. Their inconsistency since June has made every game critical.

The Nationals (63-92), already eliminated, are in spoiler mode. Their young players, like Lile and Abrams, are using this series to prove themselves for future roles.

Key Player Matchups

• Daylen Lile: Hit an inside-the-park homer to stun New York and could be an X-factor again.
• Pete Alonso: With 37 HRs, he remains the most dangerous bat in the lineup.
• CJ Abrams: Brings speed and contact hitting, adding pressure to Mets pitchers.
• Juan Soto: His ability to drive in runs and control at-bats is critical for New York’s playoff push.

Review all team stats and breakdowns on the MLB teams page.

Betting Trends

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Game Preview Recap

Washington snapped a five-game losing streak thanks to Lile’s heroics, but their bullpen continues to be a liability, ranking last in ERA. Irvin will need to pitch efficiently to avoid exposing the relief corps early.

The Mets wasted multiple scoring chances in the previous game, stranding 13 runners. That lack of execution has haunted them all season and could prove costly in the playoff chase.

Sean Manaea returns from the paternity list to start, with Clay Holmes lined up for a piggyback role. If the Mets can support their pitchers with timely hitting, they should take this crucial game.

Read the expert MLB betting guide for late-season wagering strategies.