New York Yankees vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions May 18th 2025

Series Stakes

The rubber game of the three-contest Subway Series carries extra weight for both clubs. A split through two means the winner claims bragging rights in New York, but beyond pride, momentum here could springboard either team as they head into a tougher stretch of the schedule.

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Juan Soto vs Aaron Judge Showdown

This season’s marquee sub-rivalry has centered on the late offseason blockbuster that sent Soto to Queens. After joining the Mets on a 15-year, $765 million deal, Soto has struggled early at Yankee Stadium, going 1-for-6 in his first appearances. Meanwhile, Judge has cooled off slightly but still boasts a .402 average. Expect intense at-bats whenever these two future Hall of Famers step to the plate against top-flight relievers.

Pitching Matchup

On the bump for New York is lefty Max Fried, unbeaten at 6-0 with a minuscule 1.11 ERA. He’ll be dialed in after a pair of no-decisions, including five shutout innings in his last outing. Opposing Fried is Mets southpaw David Peterson, who owns a 3.05 ERA but has yet to notch a decision this year. Peterson’s lone career start against the Yankees lasted just over four innings, yet he silenced their lineup for one run on three hits.

X-Factors to Watch

Look for veteran contributors to swing the game. DJ LeMahieu and Cody Bellinger have already gone deep in this series, with Bellinger riding a 12-game hitting streak. On the Mets side, Francisco Lindor’s late sacrifice fly was the difference-maker Saturday, and Pete Alonso’s lifetime success against Fried could tip the scales.

Our MLB Best Bets

Given Fried’s dominance and the Yankees’ potent lineup at home, backing New York on the money line offers solid value. In addition, consider the under on total runs—both starters excel at limiting damage, and this rivalry tends to hinge on one or two late swings rather than wild offense.