New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions May 2nd 2025

Power Surge and Plate Prowess

Aaron Judge enters May riding historic form, owning a major-league-best .427 average, six homers in his past four games and a 27-game on-base streak. His 32 RBIs tie for the MLB lead, and with his lineup clicking behind Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo, the Yankees boast one of the most feared offenses in baseball. Tampa Bay’s attack has sputtered recently, managing just three runs in its last four games and going 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position during its series loss to Kansas City.

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Pitching Pillars: Fried vs. Pepiot

Max Fried seeks his sixth win, carrying a 1.19 ERA into Friday’s opener. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in every start and owns a stingy .207 opponent average. Opposing him, Ryan Pepiot (2–3, 4.24 ERA) looks for redemption after falling 3–0 in their last meeting. Pepiot surrendered three runs over six innings previously but rebounded with a one-run, six-hit outing in San Diego. His changeup command will be key against a lineup adept at punishing mistakes.

Strategic Showdowns

Manager Aaron Boone will lean on Fried’s sinker-curve mix to keep Tampa’s habanero-hot hitters off balance, while Kevin Cash must find ways to ignite Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe against New York’s deep bullpen. Defensive alignments around Judge and DJ LeMahieu could determine whether Tampa’s pressure on the corners yields early breaks or if New York’s veteran infield glovework stifles rallies.

Wagering Window

With two pitchers who specialize in weak contact and veteran relievers ready to cover late innings, the early under on total runs carries value. For more tailored angles and prop breakdowns, check out our linked MLB Picks Today.

Scoreline Outlook

Expect a tight duel through five innings before New York’s lineup depth and Fried’s dominance swing the game in the home team’s favor.