New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions May 4th 2025

Series Decider: Yankees Aim to Contain Tampa’s Legs

After allowing six stolen bases—three in a decisive eighth-inning rally—New York looks to avoid dropping its third home series. The Yankees held Tampa Bay to one hit and no steals in Friday’s 3–0 win, but Saturday’s defensive lapses underscored the need for renewed focus in the finale.

Baserunning Breakdown: Six Swipes Fuel Tampa Bay

The Rays unleashed their most prolific running game since August 2024, turning a double and triple steal into a 3–2 victory. With 39 swipes on the season, including three in the game’s decisive frame, Tampa’s pressure on the corners forces the opposing defense into rushed throws and mental errors.

Pitching Matchup: Bradley’s Bounce-Back vs. Warren’s Opportunity

Taj Bradley (2–2, 4.58 ERA) looks to rebound after allowing six runs in 5⅓ innings in his previous meeting with New York. He’s held opponents to two runs or fewer in half of his starts this year and owns a 3.44 ERA in three career outings against the Yankees. Opposite him, Will Warren (1–1, 5.63 ERA) seeks his second career victory and must navigate the Rays’ aggressive basepaths without lasting past the fifth inning.

Strategic Outlook: Timing and Pressure

New York must tighten its first-step footwork and pickoff exchanges to disrupt Tampa’s cadence, while the Rays will deploy hit-and-run and steal-on-contact tactics to keep the infield moving. Late-game situational hitting—especially with runners in scoring position—will be crucial in a matchup defined by inches on the basepaths.

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Betting Angle

With stolen-base threats and middling starter ERAs, the over on total steals and the under on run totals present value. For deeper analysis and prop selections, check out our MLB Expert Picks.

Score Prediction

Expect early small-ball and tight pitching until a late burst from New York’s bullpen.
Projected Final: Yankees 4, Rays 2.