New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Predictions October 7th 2025

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays October 7th 2025

Game 3 of the ALDS is set to take place at Yankee Stadium, where the Toronto Blue Jays lead the series 2–0 against the New York Yankees. The Blue Jays, managed by John Schneider, aim to secure a sweep. Toronto had a strong regular season with a 94-68 record and will rely on Shane Bieber, who posted a 3.57 ERA, to deliver a solid performance on the mound.

The Yankees, managed by Aaron Boone, look to stay alive in the series. With a matching regular season record of 94-68, they hope to leverage their home-field advantage. Carlos Rodón will start for New York, bringing a 3.09 ERA into the game. Fans can catch the action on FS1 at 8:08 PM under ‘broken clouds’ in New York.

Blue Jays vs Yankees Key Information

• Sport: MLB
• Teams: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
• Venue: Yankee Stadium in New York, NY
• Date: Tuesday, October 7, 2025
• Betting Odds: Blue Jays Moneyline +127, Yankees Moneyline -150, Blue Jays Runline +1.5 (-173), Yankees Runline -1.5 (+145), Total Over 7.5 (-114), Total Under 7.5 (-106)

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees – ALDS Game 3 Betting Preview

Tuesday, October 7 | 7:05 p.m. ET | Yankee Stadium | TBS

The Toronto Blue Jays head to Yankee Stadium one win away from advancing to the ALCS. Their bats have overwhelmed the New York Yankees, outscoring them 23-8 in the first two games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho have combined for four home runs and 12 RBIs, while Shane Bieber prepares to face Carlos Rodón in a high-stakes Game 3. The Yankees will try to avoid being swept in the Division Series for the first time in franchise history.

Toronto Blue Jays can win if

Toronto’s offense keeps producing at its current clip. The Blue Jays lead all postseason teams with a .362 batting average, 29 hits, and eight home runs through two games. Guerrero Jr. is 6-for-9 with six RBIs, and Varsho has gone 6-for-8 with two homers. Their balance of power and contact has punished New York’s pitching, forcing early bullpen work in both games.

Bieber enters with a 3.57 ERA and excellent command, averaging one walk per start since joining Toronto. His ability to limit long balls will be crucial in Yankee Stadium. The Blue Jays have also been the better defensive team, turning key double plays and minimizing errors. If they maintain their patient approach at the plate and get another quality start, Toronto can complete the sweep.

New York Yankees can win if

New York’s pitching finally stabilizes and their lineup converts with runners in scoring position. Yankee starters have allowed nine earned runs in fewer than six combined innings across the first two games. Rodón needs to reset that trend. He’s 18-6 this season with a 3.09 ERA but has struggled against Toronto hitters — Guerrero Jr. is 10-for-17 lifetime off him.

The Yankees still have the most powerful lineup in baseball, leading MLB in home runs (274) and slugging percentage. Aaron Judge is 4-for-7 in the series, and Cody Bellinger has driven in three runs. If those two ignite early and Rodón delivers a strong six-inning outing, the Yankees have a path to extend the series. Their bullpen remains rested and capable of handling high leverage if Rodón keeps the game close.

Line Movement and Odds

Opening: Yankees -150 / Blue Jays +125
Current: Yankees -145 / Blue Jays +120
Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+145) / Blue Jays +1.5 (-175)
Total: 7.5 runs (Over -114 / Under -106)

Public money leans toward the Yankees at home, while sharp action favors the value side with Toronto. Track real-time odds on the MLB odds page.

Matchup Breakdown

Toronto’s lineup has been relentless, leading all postseason teams in OPS and on-base percentage. The Blue Jays have scored double-digit runs in consecutive games for the first time in playoff history. Bieber’s steady command and the bullpen’s 2.11 ERA have anchored their success.

New York’s starters have a 12.94 ERA through two games, and their defense has struggled to contain Toronto’s aggressive base running. The Yankees’ path forward rests on Rodón’s ability to neutralize Guerrero Jr. and control the strike zone. The team’s bullpen remains a strength, but it hasn’t been positioned to protect a lead yet.

Review team-level data and season stats on the MLB teams page.

Injuries and Conditions

Toronto Blue Jays

• No new injuries reported
• Bullpen fully available for Game 3

New York Yankees

• Max Fried (arm fatigue) – out
• Luis Gil (elbow) – unavailable

Weather in New York should be clear and cool, around 67°F with light wind blowing out to left field, giving a slight edge to right-handed power bats.

Best Bets and Prediction

Momentum and matchup data favor Toronto. Bieber has the edge in control, and the Blue Jays’ balanced offense continues to punish mistakes. The Yankees’ power gives them a fighting chance, but their pitching inconsistency makes them difficult to back at this price.

Prediction: Blue Jays 5, Yankees 3
Best Bet: Blue Jays moneyline (+120 range)
Secondary Lean: Over 7.5 runs

Compare expert projections and postseason betting trends on the best handicappers leaderboard.

ScoresAndStats Handicappers and Picks

Get postseason insights, verified betting records, and expert analysis across every MLB playoff matchup. Stay updated before first pitch with fresh betting breakdowns from top handicappers.