San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Predictions October 2nd 2024

Max Fried, Braves look to extend series vs. Padres

Joe Musgrove and the Padres (93-69) will host the Braves (89-73) at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Padres are favored on the money line (-123). The over/under line is currently at 6.5 runs, and ESPN2 will be televising this NL matchup.

Max Fried will be starting for the Braves, who are 3rd in the NL East. Musgrove is 11-9 this season, while Fried has a record of 14-7. In the NL West, the Padres are currently 2nd, trailing the Giants by one game.

Atlanta vs. San Diego Key Information

• Teams: Braves at Padres
• Where: PETCO Park San Diego
• Date: Wednesday, October 2nd
• Betting Odds SD -123 | ATL +104 O/U 6.5

The Braves Can Win If…

Facing a must-win situation, the Braves enter game two of their series against San Diego, needing a win to avoid elimination. Atlanta is on the road, where they posted a 43-38 record this season, compared to 46-35 at home. As underdogs, they went 13-19 this year.

Today’s 6.5-run over/under line is notably low for a Braves game, as 100% of their games this season had higher totals. The under has hit in their last two games, and their overall over/under record is 59-98.

Max Fried will be looking to build off his last outing, where he came one out away from a complete game shutout. Against the Royals on September 27th, Fried went 8 2/3 innings, giving up no runs on three hits. He finished the outing with nine strikeouts. Fried has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 11-10. His ERA is 3.25, along with a WHIP of 1.16. This year, opponents are batting .221 off the left-hander. Fried has two complete games and one shutout this year, along with 16 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.57 strikeouts and 2.94 walks.

Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson have been two of the Braves’ top power threats this season, as Ozuna’s 39 homers are 5th in the league and Olson is 2nd on the team with 29 homers. Ozuna also comes into the game with a team-high 104 RBIs and is batting .302 for the season. However, he is just 3/25 in his last seven games, and Olson has also struggled of late, going 4/18 in his last five games.

As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game and have been a better offensive team on the road this season. Overall, they are 4th in home runs and have the league’s 5th best isolated power figure. Currently, the Braves have three players on a notable hitting streak, with Matt Olson at five games, Ozzie Albies at three, and Ronald Acuna Jr. at four.

• The Braves are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Braves are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Atlanta has an over/under record of 1-8-1 in their last ten games.
• The Braves have an average of 2.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Braves are 5-5
• Looking back across the Braves last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Atlanta has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Braves have averaged 5.6 runs per game on offense

The Padres Can Win If…

With a 1-0 lead in their series against Atlanta, the Padres are looking to secure a win in game two and advance to the next round. San Diego finished the regular season with a 93-69 record, going 45-36 at home and 48-33 on the road. As home favorites, they posted a 39-28 record this year and have won five straight at home.

San Diego went 85-78 against the run line this season, with a home run margin of +0.1 compared to +1.1 on the road. They’ve covered the run line in three consecutive home games. The Padres’ over/under record is 82-77, and today’s 6.5-run line is their lowest of the year, compared to their average O/U line of 8 runs.

Right-hander Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Braves at home. Musgrove has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 6-5 with an ERA of 3.88. Looking back at his last outing, Musgrove finished with a no-decision against the Dodgers. In that start, he went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs on five hits. One of the hits he allowed was a home run. Musgrove has made 10 quality starts this year and is averaging 9.12 strikeouts per nine innings. His ERA at home is 4.59 compared to 4.83 on the road.

San Diego comes into the game with the league’s top batting average at .263 and are also the top home run hitting team in the league. As a team, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest.

Manny Machado has been a big run producer for the Padres this season, as his 105 RBIs are 7th in the league and the top mark on the team. He also leads the team with 29 homers. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill are also near the top of the Padres’ home run leaderboard and have been consistent hitters for the team, with Profar batting .280 and Merrill at .292. Luis Arraez has been hot of late, going 7/31 in his last 8 games.

• The Padres are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 2-7-1 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Padres are 6-4
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 4.0 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For a money line pick in this Braves vs. Padres matchup, we are leaning towards the Braves to come out on top. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the under, as this is our lowest projected scoring game of the day. Joe Musgrove is our 2nd highest projected starter in terms of strikeouts, but we still like Max Fried’s innings pitched potential for the Braves.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

Max Fried, originally drafted by the San Diego Padres in 2012, now stands between his former team and their National League wild-card series victory. The Atlanta Braves left-hander will take the mound in Game 2 with the mission of keeping his team’s postseason alive after dropping Game 1 to the Padres.

The fourth-seeded Padres opened the series with a convincing 4-0 win, riding the momentum of Michael King’s seven shutout innings and a thunderous home run from Fernando Tatis Jr. Now, it’s up to Fried to deliver a strong performance and even the series as Atlanta heads into this do-or-die contest.

Max Fried’s Connection to San Diego

Fried’s history with the Padres dates back to 2012, but his focus remains on the present. After being traded to the Braves in 2014 as part of the package for Justin Upton, Fried has become a cornerstone of Atlanta’s pitching staff. His consistent performance over the years includes a 73-36 career record and a 3.07 ERA in 168 regular-season appearances. Despite his postseason struggles (2-4, 4.57 ERA), Braves manager Brian Snitker expressed confidence in Fried’s ability to rise to the occasion.

For Fried, facing the Padres isn’t personal. “It kind of feels like a different lifetime,” Fried said. “At the end of the day, everyone — it’s a business… it’s just another postseason game.”

Braves’ Offensive Struggles in Game 1

The Braves’ normally potent offense faltered in the series opener, with Atlanta batters striking out 15 times and failing to score. Padres pitchers dominated from start to finish, while Fernando Tatis Jr. set the tone early with a massive home run in the first inning. Manager Mike Shildt praised Tatis’ quick strike, calling it a “laser to left,” which put the Braves on the back foot right from the start.

Atlanta’s inability to get runners on base or capitalize on opportunities is a red flag heading into Game 2. For a team that ranked among the league leaders in home runs and RBIs during the regular season, finding offensive rhythm is essential. Key players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna will need to step up if the Braves hope to avoid elimination.

Joe Musgrove: The Padres’ Game 2 Starter

Joe Musgrove will start for San Diego, looking to replicate the dominant pitching performance from Game 1. Musgrove, who went 6-5 with a 3.88 ERA during the regular season, has solid postseason experience from his time with the 2017 World Series champion Houston Astros and his 2022 run with the Padres.

Although he didn’t face Atlanta this season, Musgrove has a 3-1 record with a 4.29 ERA in eight career starts against the Braves. His ability to manage postseason pressure, as he described, comes down to “managing your emotions and staying in the moment.”

Musgrove’s experience could play a significant role in Game 2. If he can control the Braves’ offense the way Michael King did in Game 1, the Padres will have a clear path to victory.

Key Matchups to Watch

For Atlanta, several hitters have found success against Musgrove in the past. Marcell Ozuna (6-for-17) and Matt Olson (3-for-9) have fared well, while Ozzie Albies (2-for-13) has struggled. If the Braves can capitalize on favorable matchups and avoid the strikeout issues that plagued them in Game 1, they could reverse their offensive fortunes.

On the other side, the Padres have a mixed track record against Fried. Manny Machado is just 1-for-16 with a homer against him, but Luis Arraez (4-for-8) and Jurickson Profar (3-for-8) have hit him well. Fried, who lost to the Padres earlier this season on May 17 after giving up three runs and nine hits in just over four innings, will need to neutralize these hitters to keep Atlanta in the game.

Braves’ Game 2 Outlook

Despite the Game 1 loss, the Braves remain optimistic with Max Fried taking the mound. Fried has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the past few seasons, and his experience and skill are vital for Atlanta’s hopes of extending the series.

Manager Brian Snitker acknowledged the importance of the situation, stating, “We don’t have to win two in a row, we’ve just got to win (Wednesday).” For the Braves, the focus will be on tightening up their pitching and finding the offensive spark that eluded them in Game 1.

Padres’ Game 2 Outlook

For the Padres, confidence is high after their Game 1 victory. The combination of dominant pitching, led by Michael King, and timely hitting from Tatis and Higashioka, has San Diego feeling good about their chances to close out the series. If Musgrove can maintain composure and pitch deep into the game, the Padres’ bullpen will be well-rested and ready to secure the win.

Mike Shildt’s squad knows the importance of staying aggressive. Tatis’ early home run in Game 1 showed how quickly momentum can shift, and the Padres will look to jump on Fried early to avoid giving the Braves any chance to settle into the game.

Conclusion: What’s at Stake in Game 2?

Game 2 presents a pivotal moment for both teams. For the Braves, it’s a fight for survival, with Max Fried needing to deliver a vintage performance on the mound while the offense wakes up from its Game 1 slumber. The Padres, meanwhile, are looking to ride their Game 1 momentum and close out the series, relying on Joe Musgrove’s postseason poise and a lineup that has already proven its ability to deliver in big moments.

Atlanta will need both offensive adjustments and a strong outing from Fried to force a Game 3. For San Diego, another shutdown performance from their pitchers could punch their ticket to the next round.