Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Predictions August 4th 2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles August 4th 2025

The Baltimore Orioles will visit the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Monday, August 4, 2025. The game starts at 6:45 PM and will be shown on MASN. The Orioles have a record of 51-61 and are ranked fifth in the AL East, while the Phillies are 63-48 and lead the NL East.

For this game, Cade Povich will start for the Orioles. He has an ERA of 5.15 and a WHIP of 1.50. The Phillies will counter with Jesús Luzardo, who has an ERA of 4.31 and a WHIP of 1.37. The weather forecast predicts a very hot day with clear skies and calm crosswinds.

Orioles vs Phillies Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Monday, August 4, 2025
• Betting Odds: Orioles Moneyline +166, Phillies Moneyline -200, Orioles Runline +1.5 (-117), Phillies Runline -1.5 (-104), Total Over 9.0 (-103), Total Under 9.0 (-119)

The Orioles Can Win If…

The Baltimore Orioles are coming off a 5-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs. Despite the loss, Colton Cowser had a solid game with two hits and one RBI. Brandon Young pitched 4 2/3 innings, allowing no earned runs, which shows his potential to keep games close.

One reason the Orioles can win is their power hitting. They rank 9th in the league with 137 home runs this season. Key players like Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson have been consistent in driving in runs, making them a threat at the plate.

The Orioles’ starting pitcher, Cade Povich, will be looking to improve his performance. Although his ERA stands at 5.15, he has shown flashes of potential in past games. With strong support from the lineup, the Orioles have a chance to secure a win against the Phillies.

The Phillies Can Win If…

The Philadelphia Phillies recently secured a 2-0 victory against the Detroit Tigers. Cristopher Sánchez pitched eight scoreless innings, allowing only five hits. Kyle Schwarber led the offense with a home run, contributing to his impressive season stats.

The Phillies have a solid hitting lineup, ranking fourth in batting average at .254. They also have a strong on-base percentage, ranked fifth at .324. These stats show their ability to get on base and create scoring opportunities.

Jesús Luzardo will start for the Phillies with a 9-5 record. Luzardo has delivered quality starts, contributing to the team’s first-place rank in that category. With his skills on the mound, the Phillies have a good chance to secure another win.

The Lean

The Phillies are favored on the moneyline at -200 against the Orioles. My model projects the Phillies to win with a score of 5-3. The Phillies have a stronger pitching staff, ranking 8th in ERA, compared to the Orioles’ 26th rank. This gives the Phillies an edge in this game.

The total for the game is set at 9.0 runs. My model predicts a combined score of 8 runs, suggesting the under is a good pick. The Phillies’ pitching has been solid, which should help keep the total score below the line.

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A Tale of Two Timelines: First-Place Phillies Host Rebuilding Orioles

It is a matchup that perfectly illustrates the two divergent paths a Major League Baseball franchise can take in the heat of a pennant race. On one side, you have the host Philadelphia Phillies, a team in first place, fortified by aggressive trade deadline acquisitions, with their sights set firmly on a deep October run. On the other, you have the visiting Baltimore Orioles, a proud club that has taken the opposite approach, trading away key veterans to embark on a full-scale rebuild with an eye toward the future. When these two teams open a three-game series on Monday night in Philadelphia, it will be a true clash of timelines, with one team playing for the present and the other playing for 2026 and beyond.

The Phillies’ Championship Chase

The Philadelphia Phillies are in “win now” mode, and their recent play and roster moves reflect that urgency. They are coming off a successful weekend series win against the American League-best Detroit Tigers and currently sit atop the highly competitive National League East. Their offense is being powered by their superstar slugger, Kyle Schwarber, who is tied for the National League lead with 38 home runs. His confidence in the clubhouse is palpable.

“The biggest thing is we have a group where we know we can go really far in the playoffs and be where we want to be,” Schwarber said. “It’s a day-by-day challenge. Obviously, we have our goals before that. We want to win our division.”

The front office backed up that mentality at the trade deadline with a blockbuster move to acquire elite closer Jhoan Duran from the Minnesota Twins. He has already notched two saves for the club and provides a dominant, high-velocity presence at the back end of their bullpen. “I think the overall message was we got a guy in the back end of the bullpen to where we know that if you hand him the ball, it’s going to be tough to beat the guy,” Schwarber said of his new teammate.

The table below provides a snapshot of the two teams as they enter this series. For a full recap of their most recent games, you can check the official MLB game results.

Baltimore’s Audition Season

While the Phillies are loading up for a title run, the Baltimore Orioles have hit the reset button. At the trade deadline, they made the difficult decision to trade away three key veterans—center fielder Cedric Mullins, right fielder Ramon Laureano, and first baseman Ryan O’Hearn—for prospects. The moves were a clear signal that the remainder of the 2025 season is not about winning, but about evaluation. The front office and interim manager Tony Mansolino will use the final two months to give extended looks to their young players to see who will be a part of their next contending team.

One of the primary beneficiaries of this youth movement is 25-year-old infielder Jeremiah Jackson. With a path to playing time at his natural position of second base blocked by superstar prospect Jackson Holliday, Jackson has been getting a look in the outfield. He started the last two games in right field and was even slotted into the number five spot in the batting order on Sunday. “I just need someone to make contact in that five-hole right there,” Mansolino explained of his strategic decision. “You’ve got your four best hitters, and the odds are if you’re going to create traffic, it’s going to be with those four guys at the top. Whoever is sitting in that five-hole has got to put the ball in play.” For a young player like Jackson, this is a massive opportunity. “Really just sticking to an approach,” he said. “Just being ready and competing in the box, I think that’s really been the biggest separator for me.” The mindset of a rebuilding team and the opportunities it creates is a fascinating topic, one often explored in our expert betting guide.

The Pitching Matchup: A Tale of Consistency vs. Comeback

Monday’s pitching matchup features two left-handers in very different situations. The Phillies will send out Jesus Luzardo (9-5, 4.31), who has been a consistent and effective part of their strong rotation. He is coming off a dominant performance where he threw seven shutout innings against the White Sox. His only weakness has been a poor career record against the Orioles, but this is a very different Baltimore lineup than the ones he has faced in the past.

The Orioles will counter with Cade Povich (2-5, 5.15), who is being activated from the 10-day injured list to make the start. Povich has been sidelined since mid-June with hip inflammation, and this will be his first time facing the powerful Phillies lineup.

The Betting Outlook

The scores and odds for this matchup will heavily favor the first-place Phillies. They are at home, they are the better team, and they have a significant advantage on the mound. For more in-depth analysis of this and other games, you can view all of our MLB previews. To see who our experts are backing in this interleague clash, check out our daily MLB picks. To get access to even more premium content and betting tools, you can register for an account today.