Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions July 5th 2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds July 5th 2025

The Cincinnati Reds will take on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday, July 5, 2025. The game is set for an afternoon start at 4:05 PM. Fans can catch the action on FDSOH, with overcast clouds expected and a warm day on the horizon.

The Reds, managed by Terry Francona, come into this game with a 46-42 record. They have a road record of 22-23 and are seven games back in the NL Central. The Phillies, led by Rob Thomson, hold a 51-37 record with a strong home record of 28-16. Nick Lodolo will start for the Reds, while Ranger Suárez will take the mound for the Phillies.

Reds vs Phillies Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Saturday, July 5, 2025
• Betting Odds: Reds Moneyline +150, Phillies Moneyline -178, Reds Runline +1.5 (-144), Phillies Runline -1.5 (+121), Total Over 8.5 (-106), Total Under 8.5 (-114)

The Reds Can Win If…

The Cincinnati Reds recently secured a win against the Philadelphia Phillies with a 9-6 score. Their offense was strong, collecting 11 hits. Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson both had two hits and contributed significantly to the team’s success.

The Reds’ batting lineup has shown consistency, ranking 8th in batting average at .248. They have 145 doubles, placing them 7th in the league. Their ability to get on base and hit for extra bases can help them in their next game.

Nick Lodolo will start for the Reds, bringing an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.15. He has a balanced record of 5-5 and aims to lead the team to another victory. With strong performances from key players like Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer, the Reds have a solid chance to win again.

The Phillies Can Win If…

The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off a tough 6-9 loss against the Cincinnati Reds. Despite the loss, the Phillies showed strong hitting with 14 hits and a home run by Nick Castellanos. Key players like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper also contributed with multiple hits, showing their ability to perform under pressure.

The Phillies have solid stats that can lead them to a win. They hold a third-place rank in batting average at .257 and second in on-base percentage at .329. Their pitching staff is also strong, with Ranger Suárez having an impressive ERA of 2.00 and a WHIP of 1.00, making him a key player for their defense.

Looking ahead, the Phillies have a lineup filled with talent. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 26 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Trea Turner holds a .299 batting average. With Ranger Suárez on the mound, the Phillies have a good chance to bounce back and secure a win in their next game against the Reds.

The Lean

The Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -178, and they have a strong hitting lineup with a batting average of .257, ranked 3rd. The Reds have a moneyline of +150 and a lower batting average of .248. Given the Phillies’ higher on-base percentage and their home advantage, the pick is for the Phillies to win the game. The model projects the Phillies to win with a score of 5-3.

The total for the game is set at 8.5, with the over at -106 and the under at -114. The Phillies have a solid pitching staff with an ERA of 3.76, ranked 12th, while the Reds’ ERA is 3.95. Considering both teams’ pitching and hitting stats, the model projects a total of 8 runs. The recommendation is to take the under 8.5.

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Reds’ Resilient Rally

The Cincinnati offense showcased its depth Friday, erasing a 3–0 deficit by scoring in four consecutive innings, including a five-run third that turned the game in their favor. With contributions throughout the lineup and a clear belief in their ability to battle back, the Reds continue to prove they belong in every contest. For a deeper look at upcoming matchups, see our MLB previews for the latest analysis.

Suarez Seeks Another Stellar Start

Ranger Suarez (7–2, 2.00 ERA) looks to extend his dominant run when he toes the rubber Saturday. Over his last eight starts he’s yielded just six earned runs (0.99 ERA), and in four career starts against Cincinnati he’s posted a 2.17 ERA. Opponents and bettors alike will want to consult our MLB expert betting guide to see how Suarez’s ground-ball tendencies and pitch mix match up with the Reds’ lineup.

Lodolo Aims for Sharper Control

Nick Lodolo (5–5, 3.52 ERA) has enjoyed past success versus Philadelphia—he owns a 2.76 ERA in five career starts—but will need to tighten his command after walking two and hitting one batter in his last outing. If he can reduce the free passes, he’ll keep the Reds in position to pounce early. Check out our latest MLB picks for expert insights on how to play Lodolo’s first-five innings performance.

Bullpen Strength and Late-Game Confidence

With Emilio Pagán locking down his 19th save Friday and boasting 11 scoreless outings in his last 12 appearances, Cincinnati’s late-inning security is second to none. Our handicapper leaderboard ranks the top relievers and closers for high-leverage situations, so you can see who’s trending when the game is on the line.

Betting Opportunities and Where to Get Picks

Between Suarez’s overpowering run, Lodolo’s control questions, and the reliable late-game arms, this matchup offers several angles for bettors. Whether it’s first-five innings props, under on total runs, or a play on Pagán’s next save, you can buy picks to secure expert guidance and lock in your wagers ahead of Saturday’s showdown.