Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions September 8th 2025

Mets vs Phillies Picks and Predictions — September 8, 2025

The Philadelphia Phillies return home Monday night to open a crucial four-game set against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia (83-60) holds a seven-game lead in the NL East over New York (76-67) and has a chance to all but bury the Mets’ division hopes with a strong series.

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These teams met in late August, when the Mets swept three straight to briefly tighten the race. Since then, however, the Phillies have gone 7-3 while New York has dropped six of its last 10. For a deeper look at how both sides have trended, review the updated MLB game results.

Opening odds: Mets -117 (moneyline), Phillies -101, Total 8.5 runs.

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Mets Can Win If…

Rookie Nolan McLean (4-0, 1.37 ERA) continues to impress, winning all four of his MLB starts. He already blanked Philadelphia over eight innings in a 6-0 victory last month, and manager Carlos Mendoza has praised his poise.

New York’s offense has been inconsistent but still features big bats in Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. The Mets rank third in on-base percentage (.329) and fifth in slugging (.431), meaning if they generate traffic, they have the power to capitalize.

“That’s what you call pitching!” Mendoza said of McLean’s last outing.

If McLean delivers another quality start and the lineup produces timely power, the Mets can steal the opener.

Phillies Can Win If…

Philadelphia’s strength has been consistency at home, where they’re 45-23 this season. Aaron Nola (3-8, 6.78 ERA) gets the ball, looking to bounce back after allowing six runs in his last start against Milwaukee. His career numbers versus New York (10-10, 3.54 ERA) suggest he can find success if he avoids the big inning.

Kyle Schwarber remains the power anchor, blasting 49 homers and driving in 120 RBIs. With Trea Turner sidelined by a hamstring injury, contributions from Brandon Marsh and Alec Bohm become even more important.

“I’ve got to stop giving up so many runs, and (start) being on attack mode,” Nola said of his recent struggles.

If Nola steadies himself and the Phillies’ bats heat up, they can reassert dominance in the division.

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

Model Projection: Mets 5, Phillies 4
Pick: Mets Moneyline (-117)
Total Lean: Over 8.5

The Mets’ rookie ace McLean has been lights out, and his dominance of the Phillies in their last meeting looms large. Philadelphia’s offense can keep things close, but Nola’s struggles tilt the edge to New York in a high-scoring affair. Stay sharp with daily insights like this on our MLB Betting Predictions hub.

September baseball is here — playoff races are heating up. Explore more expert picks here →