Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions May 14th 2025

Streak Spotlight: Nine and Counting

St. Louis rides MLB’s longest 2025 win streak into a day‑night twin bill after Monday’s 3‑2 opener. The club’s “pretend we’re still negative” mantra, as rookie Masyn Winn phrased it, has fostered loose energy despite a modest .236 team average during the run. Tight defense (only four errors in nine games) and timely long balls from Winn, Ivan Herrera and Lars Nootbaar have offset light overall contact, enabling the Cardinals to win six one‑run contests since May 4.

Game 1 Mound Clash: Fedde vs. Luzardo

Erick Fedde (3‑3, 3.86 ERA) spun his first career shutout last Friday, dodging barrels with a cutter‑sinker mix. He’s fared poorly vs. Philadelphia (2‑7, 5.98 ERA) but enters with a 55 percent ground‑ball rate—key against Citizens Bank Park’s short porch. Lefty Jesús Luzardo (3‑0, 2.11 ERA) counters after a 105‑pitch grind at Tampa Bay, where deep counts inflated his WHIP. St. Louis’ right‑handed bats—Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado—will hunt early, while Luzardo’s changeup must neutralize Winn atop the order.

How to Bet on MLB Like a Pro! – Get expert insights & winning strategies

Game 2 Showdown: Gray vs. Nola

Sonny Gray (4‑1, 3.50 ERA) dominated Pittsburgh with seven scoreless frames and an 18‑percent whiff rate on his sweeper. He owns a 3.41 lifetime ERA vs. Philly, leaning on pinpoint two‑seamers that bore in on lefties. Aaron Nola (1‑6, 4.89 ERA) seeks to tame walk woes—22 free passes in 42 IP—yet maintains a 2.62 ERA in 14 career starts against the Cardinals. His curveball still yields a .182 average; avoiding first‑inning trouble will decide whether he flips the script.

Offensive Keys & Defensive Mix

Philadelphia’s lineup has averaged 5.4 runs in its past 15 games, sparked by Bryson Stott’s .312 OBP and Alec Bohm’s league‑leading 17 doubles. Yet Monday’s 0‑for‑7 night with RISP exposed feast‑or‑famine tendencies. St. Louis counters with savvy base running—18 steals in 20 attempts since April 20—testing J.T. Realmuto’s arm. Defensive shifts: Cards position Tommy Edman deep against Kyle Schwarber’s pull profile; Phillies slide Trea Turner up the middle to rob Herrera’s liners.

Bullpen Blueprint & Doubleheader Depth

St. Louis relievers boast a 1.91 ERA during the streak, aided by Ryan Helsley’s 0.63 WHIP. Oliver Marmol will mix JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittredge as matchup weapons to bridge two games. Philadelphia’s back‑end trio (José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto) combines for 31 strikeouts in 24 May innings but may see heavy lift if Nola or Luzardo exits early. Bench bats—Richie Palacios for St. Louis, Whit Merrifield for Philly—could swing the nightcap.

Betting Angle & Best Prop

Fedde’s ground‑ball tilt and Nola’s history vs. STL suggest unders on first‑five totals, while Gray’s strike‑plus‑whiff rates make his K prop (6.5) attractive. For side, total, and prop breakdowns, visit our linked single resource: MLB Betting Picks.