Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions July 25th 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks July 25th 2025

The Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on Friday, July 25, 2025. The game is set to start at 6:40 PM and will be broadcast on SN PT. The weather forecast predicts a very hot day with light rain and a breeze blowing in.

Arizona comes into this game with a record of 50-53. Ryne Nelson will be on the mound for the Diamondbacks, carrying an ERA of 3.52. Pittsburgh holds a record of 42-61 and will rely on Mike Burrows, who has an ERA of 4.70. Both teams are looking to improve their standings in their respective divisions.

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
• Venue: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Friday, July 25, 2025
• Betting Odds: Diamondbacks Moneyline -122, Pirates Moneyline +104

The Diamondbacks Can Win If…

The Arizona Diamondbacks are ready to turn things around after a close 4-3 loss to the Houston Astros. Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo were standout performers in that game. Marte hit a home run and scored twice, while Perdomo went 4-for-4 with two doubles.

The Diamondbacks have strong hitting stats that could lead them to victory. They rank second in slugging percentage at .446 and are fifth in home runs with 147. Their ability to hit doubles, ranking second with 186, adds to their offensive strength.

Ryne Nelson will take the mound for the Diamondbacks with an ERA of 3.52. His WHIP of 1.05 suggests he can keep runners off base. With the Pirates starting Mike Burrows, who has a higher ERA of 4.70, Nelson’s performance could be key for the Diamondbacks.

The Pirates Can Win If…

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter their next game with momentum. They recently defeated the Detroit Tigers 6-1 at home. Bailey Falter pitched seven innings, allowing just one run and striking out eight. Spencer Horwitz led the offense with a home run and four RBIs. Andrew McCutchen also added a home run, contributing to the team’s strong performance.

The Pirates’ recent success can be attributed to their solid pitching and timely hitting. They hold an earned run average (ERA) of 3.84, ranking 11th in the league. Their batting average against is .235, which is 5th best. This shows their ability to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities. Their lineup, featuring players like Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, has been effective in generating runs.

Pittsburgh’s lineup has depth and experience. Andrew McCutchen, with a .255 batting average and nine home runs, is a key player. Ke’Bryan Hayes and Nick Gonzales provide additional support with their consistent hitting. As they face the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Pirates will rely on Mike Burrows as their starting pitcher. His ability to keep the game close could be crucial for another victory.

The Lean

The Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of -122 against the Pirates at +104. The Diamondbacks have a strong hitting lineup, ranking 2nd in slugging percentage and 5th in home runs. Given their offensive power and the Pirates’ lower batting average and slugging percentage, the Diamondbacks are the pick to win. My model projects a score of Diamondbacks 5, Pirates 4.

The total runs line is set at 9.0 with the over at -109 and the under at -111. The Diamondbacks’ strong offense and the Pirates’ solid pitching, which ranks 11th in ERA, suggest a balanced game. My model projects a total of 9 runs, which aligns with the current line. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the over at 9.0.

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Diamondbacks Visit Pirates With a Sense Change Is Near

The Arizona Diamondbacks are watching their playoff hopes fade fast and will try to regain momentum when they visit the red-hot Pittsburgh Pirates for a three-game series starting Friday.

Arizona’s post-All-Star break surge was short-lived—they swept the St. Louis Cardinals but were promptly swept themselves by the Houston Astros. Now, the D-backs face a Pirates team that has suddenly caught fire at home.

Pirates Heating Up at Home

While Pittsburgh isn’t in the playoff mix and could be sellers at the trade deadline, they’ve looked sharp lately. The Pirates are fresh off a three-game sweep of the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers, outscoring them 15-4.

They’ve won 10 of their past 13 games at PNC Park, with Spencer Horwitz leading the way.

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Horwitz delivered back-to-back three-hit games to open the series vs. Detroit, then capped things with his first career grand slam in a 6-1 victory Wednesday.

“I don’t know that it’s been that bad,” Horwitz said. “I think the underlying numbers have been pretty good. But yeah, I’m getting the outward results. And I think it’s rewarding, for sure.”

The Pirates will send rookie Mike Burrows (1-3, 4.70 ERA) to the mound. Burrows is seeking redemption after allowing five runs in just 3 1/3 innings against Arizona back on May 27, a game Pittsburgh still won 9-6.

In his last outing, Burrows went five innings, allowing two runs on three hits with six strikeouts in a loss to the Chicago White Sox.

D-backs Facing Trade Deadline Questions

The Diamondbacks came into 2025 with playoff aspirations, but a disappointing first half has created trade deadline uncertainty.

Manager Torey Lovullo acknowledged the uneasy feeling around the clubhouse.

“It’s kind of weird. I might say goodbye to some players on the road and I’ll never see them in this clubhouse again,” Lovullo said after Wednesday’s 4-3 loss to Houston. “It initially grabs you and postures you a little bit, but we’ve been hardened by this game. We’ll be fine no matter what happens.”

Arizona will rely on right-hander Ryne Nelson (6-2, 3.52 ERA) to stop the slide. Nelson has been steady since joining the rotation full-time, going 4-1 with a 3.61 ERA over his past seven starts, and the Diamondbacks have won six of those games.

He was also dominant in his last meeting with Pittsburgh, tossing 6 2/3 shutout innings in a 7-3 victory back in May.

This series could be pivotal for Arizona—another stumble might push them firmly into “seller” mode before the July 31 deadline.

Can Nelson cool off a hot Pirates lineup, or will Pittsburgh’s home surge continue? Get the latest MLB odds, prop bets, and expert analysis with our full MLB Predictions and Picks.