Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Predictions May 1st 2025

Pirates vs Cubs Game Preview: Skenes, Rea Face Off in Series-Deciding Clash

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs have traded blows through two games of this pivotal early-season series. On Thursday, the tension peaks as Pittsburgh sends out its ace Paul Skenes to face Cubs right-hander Colin Rea in a rubber match that feels bigger than just Game 3 of a set.

After a thrilling 4-3 comeback victory on Wednesday, Pittsburgh has a chance to take the series at PNC Park and build valuable momentum in the National League Central. For Chicago, the goal is to avoid back-to-back series losses for the first time in 2025.

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Paul Skenes: Dominating Again in Year Two

When you dominate as a rookie, expectations skyrocket. And yet Paul Skenes has not only matched his breakout season—he’s arguably surpassed it.

After going 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA last year to earn National League Rookie of the Year honors, the 22-year-old righty has come out firing in 2025. Through six starts, Skenes is 3-2 with a 2.39 ERA and a league-best 0.796 WHIP. Opponents are batting just .190 against him, and he’s striking out hitters with an evolving arsenal that keeps getting better.

In his last outing, Skenes blanked the Los Angeles Dodgers over 6 1/3 innings, allowing five hits and no walks while striking out nine. The surprising twist? He threw his curveball 17 times—a pitch he’d used just 5.5% of the time previously.

That adaptability is what makes Skenes elite, according to manager Derek Shelton.

“His ability, especially at 22, to break down a game and realize what’s working that day—he’s fortunate to have multiple weapons to actually attack people,” Shelton said.

In four career starts vs. the Cubs, Skenes is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 30 strikeouts—clear evidence that he’s found a formula that works against Chicago’s lineup.

Get expert pitching insights with matchup projections on the MLB picks page.

Rea Tasked With Steadying the Cubs

While Skenes headlines the matchup, Colin Rea has quietly carved out his own successful start. The Cubs’ right-hander holds a 1-0 record and 0.96 ERA, coming off a six-inning shutout performance against the Philadelphia Phillies last Friday.

Rea isn’t overpowering, but he’s been efficient and reliable. Chicago will need that version of him Thursday—especially given his career struggles against Pittsburgh. In seven appearances (five starts), Rea owns a 2-3 record and a 6.52 ERA vs. the Pirates.

Chicago hopes his recent form outweighs the history.

Ke’Bryan Hayes Extends Streak, McCutchen’s Words Resonate

One of the Pirates’ most consistent performers, Ke’Bryan Hayes, has quietly put together a 10-game hitting streak, batting .333 (13-for-39) during that stretch. On Wednesday, he went 2-for-4 and played a key role in the Pirates’ late-inning surge.

Wednesday’s game, however, was overshadowed by a scary moment in the seventh inning when a fan fell from the stands and onto the warning track. The game was briefly paused as medical personnel responded.

Veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen, who was running out a double at the time of the incident, later shared his thoughts on social media:

“Truly hate what happened tonight. Can’t help but think about that guy, his family and friends… I hope he pulls thru. May God Bless you all.”

As of Thursday morning, the fan remained hospitalized in critical condition.

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Cubs Looking to Avoid Back-to-Back Series Losses

For the Cubs, who’ve been one of the more consistent teams in the NL Central, Thursday’s game looms large. After dropping two of three to the Phillies last weekend and splitting the first two in Pittsburgh, Chicago is teetering on the edge of a minor slump.

Shortstop Dansby Swanson offered a rare bright spot Wednesday, going 3-for-4 for his first three-hit game of the season. Still, his season slash line remains underwhelming at .203/.256/.382.

Swanson remains optimistic.

“Being able to get solidified in the work I’m doing and get some clarity in what I’m doing—sometimes that can go a long way,” he said. “Just go compete with confidence and whatever happens, happens.”

Veteran starter Jameson Taillon emphasized the mental edge Chicago needs to maintain.

“We have a bit of a target on our back,” he said. “We’re the Chicago Cubs… There’s no time to step off the gas.”

What’s at Stake in the Series Finale?

Thursday’s game is more than just a tiebreaker. It’s about identity and momentum.

The Pirates are still shaping their young roster around Skenes, Hayes, and breakout players like Oneil Cruz, and every series win helps build credibility. For the Cubs, a loss would mark their first stretch of back-to-back series losses in 2025—and in a tight division, these early results could matter come September.

For the latest team standings and projections, visit the MLB team pages.

Stat Breakdown: Pirates vs Cubs Finale

FAQs

When is the Pirates vs Cubs series finale?
Thursday at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. It’s the final game of a three-game series.

Who are the starting pitchers?
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs Colin Rea (CHC), both right-handers.

What’s at stake for the Cubs?
A loss would mark their first back-to-back series defeats of the 2025 season.

How is Paul Skenes performing this year?
Skenes is 3-2 with a 2.39 ERA and an NL-best 0.796 WHIP through six starts.

Who’s hot for Pittsburgh?
Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit safely in 10 straight games, batting .333 in that span.

Where can I find betting picks for this game?
Visit the MLB Picks Page for expert predictions and betting analysis.