Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions May 19th 2025

Red-Hot Reds Visit Ice-Cold Pirates in NL Central Clash

Momentum matters in baseball, and right now the Cincinnati Reds have it all. Winners of four straight and fresh off a sweep of the Guardians, the Reds roll into Pittsburgh for a three-game set starting Monday night. The Pirates, meanwhile, are in a freefall—losers of 16 of their last 20 and struggling to find any spark under new manager Don Kelly.

Reds on a Roll Behind Surprise Hero Will Benson

Will Benson wasn’t even on the Opening Day roster. But since being called up from Triple-A on May 10, the 25-year-old outfielder has exploded:

• Batting .423 with 5 home runs and 11 RBIs in 8 games
• Homered in four straight games, including a two-homer game on Sunday

Manager Terry Francona praised Benson’s mental approach and ability to adjust mid-count:
“He hasn’t missed it the second time. He’s dangerous right now.”

His production has helped Cincinnati fill the gap left by injuries to Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and his performance may just earn him a permanent spot in the heart of the Reds’ lineup.

For more player trends and lineup stats, check our MLB team stats page.

Pirates’ Struggles Continue Under New Leadership

Since parting ways with former skipper Derek Shelton, the Pirates have gone 3–6 and have now dropped 6 of 9 under Kelly’s interim watch.

They were shut out 1–0 Sunday, wasting a dominant start from Paul Skenes, who struck out nine over eight innings and allowed just one run. It marked another case of strong pitching and zero offensive support.

Kelly put it bluntly:
“Offensively, it’s just continuing to grind and execute.”

Unfortunately, execution has been elusive. Pittsburgh has scored more than three runs just twice in its last nine games.

Pitching Matchup: Lodolo vs. Keller

Nick Lodolo (3–4, 3.42 ERA, Reds):
The lefty has struggled to go deep into games lately, completing six innings in just two of his last six starts. During that stretch, he’s posted a 4.76 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 34 innings. He’s 2–2 with a 4.30 ERA in four career starts vs. Pittsburgh.

Mitch Keller (1–5, 4.15 ERA, Pirates):
Keller is 0–5 since his Opening Day win, despite allowing 3 runs or fewer in 6 of his last 7 starts. His career numbers against Cincinnati aren’t pretty: 3–5 with a 6.06 ERA in 17 starts.

For current lines and live updates, visit the MLB odds page.

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Team Trends and Betting Angles

Cincinnati Reds:

• 4-game win streak
• Swept Cleveland, outscoring them 13–4
• 3–0 vs. Pirates this season

Pittsburgh Pirates:

• 1–5 on recent road trip
• Lost 6 straight Keller starts
• Just 2 runs in last 2 games

Top Betting Picks:

• Reds ML: Cincinnati is hot and facing a pitcher they’ve hit well historically.
• Under 8 Runs: Both starters are capable, and the Pirates’ offense is ice cold.

Looking for props or parlays? Check the MLB picks page for expert insight.

Series Outlook

This matchup feels like a momentum mismatch. The Reds are surging behind emerging talent like Benson and a balanced lineup, while the Pirates are treading water, wasting quality pitching performances with minimal run support.

With Keller still hunting for his second win and Lodolo looking to regain form, Game 1 could set the tone for a lopsided series if Pittsburgh’s bats stay quiet.

Stay tuned all week for series updates and real-time betting insights.