Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions June 5th 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros June 5th 2025

The Houston Astros will play against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on Thursday, June 5, 2025. The game is set for a 6:40 PM start and will be broadcast on SCHN. The weather forecast shows a very hot day with light rain and a breeze blowing in.

Houston comes into the game with a 33-28 record this season. They have struggled on the road, holding an 11-16 record away from Daikin Park. Framber Valdez will start for the Astros, bringing a 3.12 ERA and a 5-4 record. The Pirates, managed by Don Kelly, have a 23-39 record and are 15 games back in the NL Central. Mitch Keller will take the mound for Pittsburgh, with a 3.73 ERA and a 1-7 record.

Astros vs Pirates Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
• Venue: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
• Betting Odds: Astros MoneyLine -161, Pirates MoneyLine +136

The Astros Can Win If…

The Houston Astros are coming off a recent loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, 0-3. Despite the loss, the Astros managed to collect seven hits, with Jeremy Peña leading the way with two hits, including a double. Pitcher Ryan Gusto had a challenging outing, allowing three earned runs over 4 1/3 innings, but the Astros’ lineup showed potential for improvement in their next game.

Houston’s pitching staff has been a strong point this season, ranking second in strikeouts with 576 and holding opponents to a .221 batting average, which is also second-best. Framber Valdez, with a solid ERA of 3.12, will take the mound, offering a reliable option against the Pirates. The Astros’ ability to limit home runs, ranked eighth in the league, could be key in controlling the Pirates’ offense.

Offensively, the Astros have several players capable of making an impact. Isaac Paredes leads the team with 12 home runs, while Jeremy Peña has a strong batting average of .312. With a lineup that includes Jose Altuve and Christian Walker, the Astros have the potential to generate runs and support their pitching staff in securing a win.

The Pirates Can Win If…

The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off a strong win against the Houston Astros, with a 3-0 victory. Mike Burrows delivered a solid performance, pitching 5 1/3 innings without allowing a run. Key hitters like Oneil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz contributed with multiple hits, setting the stage for another strong game.

The Pirates’ pitching has been reliable this season, with a team ERA of 3.88, ranking 14th in the league. Their ability to limit home runs, ranking 4th with only 50 allowed, is crucial against powerful lineups. Mitch Keller, the starting pitcher for the next game, holds a respectable ERA of 3.73, which can keep opposing hitters in check.

On offense, the Pirates have shown speed with 61 stolen bases, ranking 4th in the league. Isiah Kiner-Falefa leads the team in batting average at .304, providing consistency at the plate. With players like Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds in the lineup, the Pirates have the potential to generate runs and secure another win.

The Lean

The Astros are favored with a MoneyLine of -161, while the Pirates sit at +136. Based on team stats, the Astros have a stronger pitching lineup, ranking 10th in ERA and 2nd in strikeouts. The Pirates’ batting average and on-base percentage rank lower, which suggests the Astros are likely to win. My model projects the Astros to win 5-3.

The total for this game is set at 7.5. The Astros’ pitching is solid, and the Pirates have struggled with hitting, ranking 28th in slugging percentage. Given these factors, this game is likely to stay under the total. My model projects a combined score of 8, but the strong pitching suggests betting on the under is a safer choice.

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Pirates Hope Keller’s Arm Gets Support in Finale vs. Astros

The Pittsburgh Pirates aim to back up their ace Mitch Keller with some much-needed run support Thursday night as they host the Houston Astros in the rubber match of their three-game series. After each team earned a 3-0 shutout in the first two games, both starters — Keller and Houston’s Framber Valdez — are positioned for a tense pitching duel.

For the Pirates, the challenge isn’t just facing Valdez’s red-hot form, but finally delivering enough offense to reward Keller’s consistent performances.

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Keller Shines Despite 1-7 Record

Keller (1-7, 3.73 ERA) hasn’t won a game since Opening Week, but it’s not for lack of effort. In fact, he’s pitched well over the past five starts, posting a 2.90 ERA and giving up just one home run — only to watch the offense score a combined six runs in that span.

“He would love to get the win, sure,” said interim manager Don Kelly. “But he’s going out there to put us in the best position to be successful… he probably deserved the ‘W.’”

In his only career outing against Houston, Keller delivered six solid innings of two-run ball in 2023. Despite the swirling trade rumors — especially with Paul Skenes off the table — Keller remains a key piece in Pittsburgh’s long-term plans.

Valdez’s Value Keeps Rising

On the other side, Valdez (5-4, 3.12 ERA) is coming off a dominant 83-pitch complete game against the Rays. The effort matched the fewest pitches thrown in a complete game in Astros history — second only to Darryl Kile’s no-hitter.

“I think it’s one of the best outings of my career so far,” Valdez said through an interpreter following the win.

May was a massive month for the left-hander: 4-1 record, 2.36 ERA, and five quality starts in six outings. His overall postseason-caliber performance is drawing eyes — especially with his contract set to expire and the Astros battling injury concerns in their rotation.

That said, his 6.75 ERA in three career starts against the Pirates shows that PNC Park hasn’t always been kind to him.

This matchup presents compelling angles for MLB Picks and Game Predictions. Keller’s reliability and Valdez’s form suggest another low-scoring affair unless one offense finally breaks out.

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