Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Picks and Predictions June 11th 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins June 11th 2025

The Miami Marlins will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. The game is set for an afternoon start at 12:35 PM. Fans can catch the action on SN PT, and the weather forecast predicts a mild day with a clear sky and a light breeze.

Miami’s record stands at 25-40, with a road record of 11-20. They are 17 games back in the NL East. The Pirates, with a 27-41 record, are 14 games back in the NL Central and have an 18-19 home record. Cal Quantrill will start for the Marlins, while Bailey Falter takes the mound for the Pirates.

Marlins vs Pirates Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
• Venue: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Wednesday, June 11, 2025
• Betting Odds: Marlins MoneyLine +130, Pirates MoneyLine -154

The Marlins Can Win If…

The Miami Marlins are coming off a 3-2 win against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sandy Alcantara pitched six strong innings, allowing no runs and striking out six. Nick Fortes delivered a crucial home run, driving in two runs to secure the victory.

The Marlins have shown they can compete with a solid batting average of .248, ranking 10th in the league. They are also effective on the bases, with 53 stolen bases, placing them 10th. Their ability to steal bases adds pressure on the opposing defense, giving them an edge in close games.

Cal Quantrill will start for the Marlins, and while his ERA is 5.63, his experience can be valuable. The Marlins’ lineup includes power hitters like Agustín Ramírez, who has hit 8 home runs. With players like Dane Myers batting .307, the Marlins have the potential to score runs and win this game.

The Pirates Can Win If…

The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to bounce back after a close 3-2 loss to the Miami Marlins. Mitch Keller pitched six innings, allowing three earned runs and striking out four batters. Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz each hit a home run, showing their ability to contribute with power.

The Pirates have a solid chance to win with Bailey Falter on the mound. He has a strong ERA of 3.49 and a WHIP of 1.12, which ranks well against other pitchers. The Pirates’ pitching staff has also given up the third fewest home runs this season, making them tough to score against.

Offensively, the Pirates have been effective in recent games, scoring ten runs in their previous win against the Marlins. Andrew McCutchen leads the team with a .264 batting average and has been a consistent performer. The team also ranks fifth in stolen bases, adding another layer to their offensive strategy.

The Lean

The Pirates are favored with a moneyline of -154, while the Marlins are at +130. Given the Pirates’ stronger pitching stats, with a 3.81 ERA and a .234 batting average against, they are the pick to win. The model projects a score of Pirates 5, Marlins 4.

The over/under line is set at 8.5. The model’s projected total score is 9, suggesting a slight edge to the over. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities in pitching, which could lead to more runs being scored.

Crush Your MLB Draft

Unlock Pro Projections

Get Free Trial

Falter Looks to Get Back on Track in Pirates’ Finale

The Pittsburgh Pirates will hand the ball to Bailey Falter on Wednesday afternoon as they look to win their series against the visiting Miami Marlins. For Falter, it’s a chance to prove his last start was just a blip after a historically dominant month of May.

Can Falter Recapture the Magic?

In five starts during May, Falter was nearly unhittable, posting a microscopic 0.76 ERA that was among the best single months for a Pirates pitcher in a century. However, his most recent outing was a struggle; he lasted just 3 2/3 innings against the Phillies. Manager Don Kelly pulled him in a key situation, a strategic move that is often analyzed in our expert betting guide.

“Felt like… the game could be on the line right there,” Kelly said, explaining the decision to go to his rested bullpen. The Pirates are betting that Falter, who has a strong career record against the Marlins, will return to form.

Quantrill’s Hard-Luck Story

On the other side, Miami’s Cal Quantrill (3-6, 5.63 ERA) has been the definition of a hard-luck pitcher. While his season-long ERA is high, he’s been fantastic over his last four starts, posting a 2.95 ERA. Unfortunately for him, that hasn’t led to wins, as he’s taken two tough losses in his last two outings due to a lack of run support.

“Cal is a good pitcher… Cal is going to go out there and compete,” Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said. “He has been on a good run, and he’s been keeping us in each one of his games.” The tricky nature of this matchup is sure to be reflected in the daily scores and odds.

Signs of Life for Miami’s Rotation

The good news for the Marlins is that their pitching staff is getting healthier. The recent return of young ace Eury Perez from Tommy John surgery and improved outings from former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara provide a major boost for a team looking to be more competitive against other MLB teams.

The Kelly Effect in Pittsburgh

The Pirates hope Falter’s bounce-back can help continue their improved play under manager Don Kelly. Since Kelly took over on May 8, the team has played .500 baseball (15-15), a significant improvement from their 12-26 start to the season.

To see which pitcher our experts think will come out on top in this compelling duel, check out our daily MLB picks.