Mets vs Pirates: Blackburn vs Falter Betting Preview

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets June 28th 2025

The New York Mets will visit the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on Saturday, June 28, 2025. The game is set for an afternoon start at 4:05 PM. Fans can watch the game on SN PT.

The Mets have a season record of 48-35, with a road record of 19-23. They are managed by Carlos Mendoza. The Pirates have a season record of 33-50 and are 21-21 at home. Their manager is Don Kelly. The weather forecast for the game is warm with scattered clouds and a light breeze.

Mets vs Pirates Key Information

Sport: Baseball
Teams: New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Venue: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA
Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025
Betting Odds: Mets MoneyLine -152, Pirates MoneyLine +128

The Mets Can Win If…

The New York Mets recently faced the Pittsburgh Pirates and lost 9-1. Juan Soto hit a home run, and Brett Baty contributed with two doubles. Despite the loss, the Mets showed some power at the plate with three extra-base hits.

The Mets have a strong chance to win with their solid team stats. They rank 6th in on-base percentage and 5th in slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has the 2nd best ERA in the league, which can help them keep games close.

Key players like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor can make a difference. Alonso has 18 home runs and a .292 batting average. Lindor adds 16 home runs, making them a powerful duo in the lineup.

The Pirates Can Win If…

The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off a strong 9-1 win over the New York Mets. Mitch Keller pitched 5 1/3 innings, allowing just one run. Bryan Reynolds led the offense with a home run and three RBIs, while Alexander Canario added two doubles and an RBI.

The Pirates’ pitching has been solid this season, with a team ERA of 3.83, ranking 12th in the league. Their ability to limit home runs is also impressive, ranking 4th in the league with only 72 given up. Bailey Falter, with a 3.59 ERA, will start, giving the Pirates an edge on the mound.

Offensively, the Pirates have some key contributors. Andrew McCutchen leads the team in home runs and RBIs, while Nick Gonzales boasts a .291 batting average. With their balanced attack and strong pitching, the Pirates have a good chance to win their next game against the Mets.

The Lean

The Mets are favored with a MoneyLine of -152 against the Pirates at +128. The Mets have a strong pitching edge, ranking 2nd in ERA at 3.31, while the Pirates rank 12th with a 3.83 ERA. My model projects the Mets to win with a score of 5-3, making them the recommended pick for the MoneyLine.

The over/under line is set at 9.0 runs. The Mets’ solid pitching and the Pirates’ lower-ranked hitting, with a .230 batting average, suggest a lower-scoring game. My model projects a total of 8 runs. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the under on this game.

The New York Mets host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday looking to stabilize a rotation that just lost Griffin Canning for the season. For in-depth matchup breakdowns and analysis of today’s starters, check out our MLB previews.

Rotation Impact

Friday’s 9-1 loss highlighted how much New York leaned on Canning, who posted a 7-3 record and a 3.77 ERA before rupturing his left Achilles. With Tylor Megill, Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea already sidelined, the Mets will need every starter to step up. If you’re shopping around for angles on which pitcher to back, take a look at our latest MLB picks.

Blackburn’s Opportunity

Former All-Star Paul Blackburn (0-2, 6.62 ERA) makes his fourth start of the season, aiming to go deeper into games and limit hard contact after surrendering six hits and three walks in his last outing. His success could hinge on regaining the feel that once made him a top prospect. For advanced stats and situational trends, see our expert betting guide.

Falter’s Form

Left-hander Bailey Falter (6-3, 3.59 ERA) has been a rarity of consistency for Pittsburgh despite a shaky June, allowing three homers and nine walks in 19⅓ innings. The Pirates are 7-2 in his past nine starts, but you’ll want to weigh his early-season dominance against recent control issues. Our premium buy-picks highlight when he’s most likely to outperform expectations.

Betting Insights

Command will decide this duel—Blackburn must avoid the long ball, and Falter needs to cut down on free passes. Offensively, the Mets must provide early run support while Pittsburgh looks to scratch across a few runs against a spot starter. Stay on top of who’s shining this weekend with our live best handicappers leaderboard.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions June 28th 2025