Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions May 2nd 2025

April Surge Fuels San Diego

San Diego closed out April with a franchise-record 19 wins, sweeping the Giants to snap a four-game skid and reaffirm its contender status. Luis Arraez and Jason Heyward returned to the lineup, and Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth loom close to rejoining, giving the club hope that its offense can sustain the torrid pace that powered March into April.

Rotation Reset: Cease vs. Keller

Veteran right-hander Dylan Cease (1-2, 5.76 ERA) meets the Pirates seeking smoother command after walking four batters in his last outing. In three career starts against Pittsburgh, he owns a 2.31 ERA and has shown the ability to dominate when in synch. Opposing him is Mitch Keller (1-2, 3.97 ERA), who has allowed just three runs over six innings in his latest start yet remains winless since opening day. Keller’s slider and curve-ball mix will test a Padres order looking to capitalize on mistakes.

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Offensive Notes: Depth Returns

The Padres rediscovered their swing in San Francisco, with Arraez’s contact skills and Heyward’s veteran savvy igniting rallies. As Kyle Higashioka takes charge of early innings behind the plate, San Diego’s bench depth—soon to include Merrill and Cronenworth—adds flexibility. Against a Pirates staff surrendering the second-fewest homers in the NL, timely contact and small-ball execution may prove decisive.

Pittsburgh’s Power Drought

Pittsburgh ranks last in slugging and near the bottom in average and OBP, relying heavily on veteran Bryan Reynolds to spark rallies. Reynolds snapped an 0-for-18 slump with a two-RBI game Thursday but needs support from the rest of the order. With top arms like Paul Skenes and Andrew Heaney struggling, Keller’s quality start is crucial for any chance to break a skid that has left the Pirates in the NL Central cellar.

Wagering Insights

Given Cease’s bounce-back potential and Keller’s reliable sinker, consider the under on early totals before bullpen uncertainties arise. For detailed angles and prop breakdowns, explore our MLB Picks Today.

Final Projection

Expect a pitchers’ duel early, with San Diego’s offense finding gaps late against a fatigued Pittsburgh staff.