San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Predictions September 3rd 2025

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles September 3rd 2025

The Baltimore Orioles head to PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres on Wednesday, September 3, 2025. The game is set for an afternoon start at 4:10 PM and will be broadcast on SDPA. The Orioles have a record of 62-76 and sit in fifth place in the AL East. They are coming off a win but have struggled in their last 10 games, going 3-7.

The Padres, with a 76-62 record, hold the second spot in the NL West. They have lost their last two games and are 4-6 in their last 10. San Diego has been strong at home with a 43-23 record. The weather at PETCO Park is expected to be mild with clear skies and a calm crosswind. Cade Povich will start for the Orioles, while Nestor Cortes takes the mound for the Padres.

Orioles vs Padres Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Baltimore Orioles vs. San Diego Padres
• Venue: PETCO Park in San Diego, CA
• Date: Wednesday, September 3, 2025
• Betting Odds: Orioles Moneyline +141, Padres Moneyline -166

The Orioles Can Win If…

The Baltimore Orioles recently secured a 4-3 win against the San Diego Padres. Jeremiah Jackson had a standout performance with a home run and three hits. Samuel Basallo also contributed with two doubles and two RBIs, showcasing the team’s ability to produce runs.

The Orioles’ hitting stats show they are capable of winning games. They rank 11th in home runs with 165 and 9th in doubles with 228. This power-hitting ability can put pressure on opposing pitchers and lead to scoring opportunities.

The Orioles have key players who can make a difference. Gunnar Henderson leads the team with 16 home runs and a .279 batting average. With Cade Povich on the mound, they will look to capitalize on their hitting strengths against a Padres team with similar pitching stats.

The Padres Can Win If…

The San Diego Padres are looking to bounce back after a close 4-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. In that game, Luis Arraez had a strong performance, going 3-for-4 with an RBI. The Padres’ starting pitcher, Dylan Cease, struck out seven batters over four innings, showing his ability to handle the Orioles’ lineup.

San Diego’s pitching has been solid this season with a team ERA of 3.65, ranking them second in the league. Their ability to limit opponents’ batting averages to .224, the best in the league, gives them an edge. With Nestor Cortes on the mound, the Padres have a chance to keep the Orioles’ bats in check.

Offensively, the Padres have several key players who can make a difference. Manny Machado leads the team with 21 home runs and 79 RBIs, while Ramón Laureano adds power with 22 home runs. The lineup’s depth, including players like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Arraez, provides multiple threats to the Orioles’ pitching staff.

The Lean

The Padres are favored with a moneyline of -166 against the Orioles at +141. The Padres have a strong pitching staff, ranking 2nd in ERA and 1st in batting average against. This gives them an edge over the Orioles, who rank 26th in ERA. My model projects the Padres to win with a score of 5-3.

The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Padres’ solid pitching and the Orioles’ struggles on the mound suggest a game with more runs. My model projects a total of 8 runs. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the under at 8.5 (-115).

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Padres Under Pressure in September

The San Diego Padres are facing a critical moment as they try to end their recent struggles. After losses of 4-3 and 6-2 to the Baltimore Orioles, San Diego has now dropped seven of its last nine games. The timing could not be worse, as the team is chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West with the postseason fast approaching.

Manager Mike Shildt highlighted pitching as the main issue in Tuesday’s defeat. Yu Darvish lasted just over four innings, leaving the bullpen without its top arms available to protect a lead. Padres pitchers combined to issue five walks and allow 10 hits, creating too much traffic for the defense to handle.

For bettors following the playoff race, you can keep track of the latest MLB picks and betting trends throughout September.

Nestor Cortes Aims to Stabilize Rotation

San Diego will hand the ball to left-hander Nestor Cortes in the series finale. Cortes, sitting at 2-3 with a 5.06 ERA, struggled in his last outing at Minnesota and was ejected after questioning ball-strike calls. The Padres need him to provide length and consistency on the mound.

There is reason for optimism, as Cortes has pitched well against Baltimore in the past. He owns a 5-1 career record with a 2.20 ERA in 11 outings against the Orioles, striking out 72 in 57 1/3 innings. If he can replicate that form, San Diego has a chance to avoid the sweep. Fans can preview matchups like this across the league with the full slate of MLB previews

Baltimore’s Spoiler Role

While the Orioles are out of playoff contention, they have played inspired baseball in San Diego. Jeremiah Jackson has been the spark, extending his hitting streak to 13 games with a first-inning home run on Tuesday. The 25-year-old has made the most of his opportunity since Baltimore’s roster shakeup, hitting .333 with four homers and 17 RBIs across 29 games.

Emmanuel Rivera also played a key role with a pair of two-run singles that powered Baltimore to its series-clinching victory. On the mound, the Orioles will counter with Cade Povich, who brings a 2-7 record and 5.04 ERA. In his last start against Boston, he pitched five solid innings, allowing just two runs without issuing a walk.

To sharpen betting strategies for teams in spoiler roles, take a look at the expert betting guide for insights on how late-season dynamics impact wagering.

What’s at Stake in the Finale

The Padres enter Wednesday’s matchup at 76-63, still in striking distance in the division race, but momentum is slipping away. A sweep at home to Baltimore would raise further questions about their ability to finish strong.

Baltimore, meanwhile, has embraced the chance to play spoiler and showcase its young talent. With Jackson leading the offense, the Orioles have shown they can compete even without playoff aspirations.

Those looking to back their opinions on the game can explore buy picks from trusted cappers or track results through the handicapper leaderboard. For final box scores and performance updates, check the latest MLB game results.