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Reds vs Padres Picks and Predictions — September 8, 2025
The Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres open a three-game series Monday night at PETCO Park. Both clubs are streaking into the matchup, with the Reds still clinging to slim Wild Card hopes and the Padres chasing the NL West-leading Dodgers.
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San Diego (78-65) snapped out of an offensive slump at Coors Field, plating 18 runs over the weekend behind Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill’s bats. Cincinnati (72-71) just edged the Mets for a key series win and looks to build momentum out West. For the latest updates on both clubs, review the MLB game results page.
Opening odds: Padres -142 (moneyline), Reds +119, Total 7.5 runs.
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Reds Can Win If…
Nick Lodolo (8-7, 3.22 ERA) returns after illness cost him a start last week. He’s fared well against San Diego, owning a 2.60 ERA in three career meetings. If he locates his fastball and neutralizes Machado, the Reds can hang around late.
Cincinnati’s offense has leaned on Noelvi Marte and Elly De La Cruz, while Austin Hays says the team still believes in a playoff push:
“We’ve been playing a lot better baseball … We’re going to have a happy flight on our way to the West Coast and do some good things out there,” Hays said.
With timely hitting and Lodolo’s steadiness, the Reds can extend their win streak.
Padres Can Win If…
San Diego hands the ball to Yu Darvish (3-5, 5.75 ERA), who owns a strong career line vs. Cincinnati (3.09 ERA in 11 starts). He needs to bounce back after allowing four runs in a loss to Baltimore.
Offensively, Machado leads the team with 23 homers, while Fernando Tatis Jr. adds balance. Despite ranking 29th in MLB in long balls, the Padres flexed power with four home runs Sunday, a trend they hope carries into this homestand.
Manager Mike Shildt is encouraged by signs of life at the plate:
“The back of the baseball card tells us they’re elite performers … good to see them driving the ball the other way,” Shildt said of Machado and Merrill.
If the Padres keep their bats hot, Darvish should get enough run support to secure a win.
Key MLB Betting Trends
| Category | Reds | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 72-71 (3rd NL Central) | 78-65 (2nd NL West) |
| Last 10 Games | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| ERA / Opp Runs | 3.94 ERA (15th MLB) | 3.68 ERA (4th MLB) |
| Season Series 2025 | Reds 1-0 | Padres 0-1 |
The Lean
Model Projection: Padres 4, Reds 3
Pick: Padres Moneyline (-142)
Total Lean: Under 7.5
The Padres’ elite pitching staff (1st in MLB opponent batting average) and recent power surge tilt this matchup in their favor. Lodolo can keep it close, but Darvish’s track record against Cincinnati and San Diego’s balanced attack make the home side the play. The under looks appealing with two quality arms on the mound.
For more game previews and predictions, head to our MLB picks page.
