San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Predictions June 22nd 2025

Padres Look to Fulfill Manager’s Prophecy in Rubber Match vs. Lugo, Royals

San Diego Padres manager Mike Shildt is a relentless optimist. Where others see struggle, he sees opportunity. So, when his team was in the midst of a 2-7 slump just a few days ago, he didn’t panic. Instead, he made a bold prediction, proclaiming that his team was on the verge of reeling off “three, four, five, six, seven series in a row that we win.” After a clean 5-1 victory over the visiting Kansas City Royals on Saturday, the San Diego Padres are now just one win away from starting that streak. To do it, they’ll have to go through an old friend and one of the best pitchers in the American League.

Shildt’s Blueprint for Success

Saturday’s victory was a perfect embodiment of the clean, fundamental baseball that Shildt preaches. The Padres didn’t commit an error on defense. They received a quality start from their pitcher, Dylan Cease. Their bullpen, which has been heavily used all season, was sharp in 2 1/3 scoreless innings. And their superstar, Fernando Tatis Jr., delivered the game-breaking hit with a three-run homer in the seventh inning. It was a complete team win that showcased exactly what this roster is capable of when all its parts are working in sync. After a frustrating couple of weeks, it was a performance that backed up their manager’s unwavering belief in his clubhouse and provided a clear path forward.

The Return of Seth Lugo

The biggest obstacle standing in the way of the Padres’ first series win in two weeks is a familiar face: Royals ace Seth Lugo. The right-hander’s journey to becoming one of the league’s top pitchers runs directly through San Diego. After years as a successful reliever with the Mets, Lugo signed with the Padres in 2023 for a chance to prove he could be a full-time starter. The bet paid off handsomely for both sides. Lugo was excellent, going 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts, resurrecting his starting career. That success earned him a large contract with Kansas City, where he took his game to another level in 2024, becoming an All-Star and finishing as the runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award.

Now, he returns to Petco Park for the first time to face the organization that gave him that crucial opportunity. The emotional and psychological factors of a player facing their former team are always a fascinating element in a matchup, a topic often explored in our expert betting guide. Lugo is coming off a dominant performance against Texas, where he struck out nine over six innings, and he will be looking to shut down his old club.

The Overworked Padres Pen

A key strategic element for Sunday’s game will be the state of San Diego’s bullpen. Multiple Padres relievers rank near the top of the league in appearances, with setup man Jason Adam leading the majors with 38 games pitched. The heavy workload has led to some recent struggles. “Body and arm feel great,” Adam said on Friday after a rare poor outing. “So not a usage issue — just an execution issue.”

This puts immense pressure on Sunday’s starter, Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.70 ERA), who has not been known for pitching deep into games. Vasquez is not even averaging five innings per start this season, meaning the Padres will almost certainly have to rely on that taxed bullpen for a significant portion of the game. He will need to be incredibly efficient to give his team a chance.

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The Royals’ Road Power

While the Royals’ offense was quieted on Saturday, they have enjoyed a power surge on this road trip. The team has bashed nine home runs in their last five games, a stark contrast to their production at their spacious home park, Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City players are well aware of the difference. “It’s easier to hit home runs when we leave Kansas City,” third baseman Maikel Garcia said bluntly. “The stadiums are smaller.” This power potential makes their lineup a threat to explode at any moment, even after being held in check.

The Deciding Game Matchup

Sunday’s finale presents a fascinating duel. It’s the steady, but not overpowering, Vasquez trying to protect a tired bullpen for the Padres against the Royals’ bona fide ace in Lugo. On paper, the pitching matchup heavily favors the visitors, a factor that will be a key focus on the scores and odds board. For two MLB teams trying to build momentum, this rubber match carries significant weight. To see who our experts think will win this compelling showdown, check out our daily MLB picks.