San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions July 28th 2025

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets July 28th 2025

The New York Mets will take on the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on Monday, July 28, 2025. The game is scheduled to start at 9:40 PM and will be broadcast on SNY. The weather forecast predicts a mild evening with a light breeze and a few clouds.

The Mets, managed by Carlos Mendoza, have a season record of 62-44. They have performed well at home but have struggled on the road with a 25-28 record. The Padres, led by Mike Schildt, hold a 57-49 record and are four games back in the NL West. Both teams will rely on their starting pitchers, with Frankie Montas starting for the Mets and Dylan Cease for the Padres.

Mets vs Padres Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
• Venue: PETCO Park in San Diego, CA
• Date: Monday, July 28, 2025
• Betting Odds: Mets Moneyline +110, Padres Moneyline -129, Mets Runline +1.5 (-192), Padres Runline -1.5 (+160), Total Over 8.0 (-112), Total Under 8.0 (-108)

The Mets Can Win If…

The New York Mets recently took down the San Francisco Giants, winning 5-3. Ronny Mauricio led the charge, going 4-for-4 with a home run and two doubles. Juan Soto also added a home run, contributing to the Mets’ 12 hits in the game.

The Mets have been strong in recent games, with a team slugging percentage of .414, ranking 6th in the league. They have hit 133 home runs this season, placing them 8th. Their pitching staff has an ERA of 3.54, which is 3rd best, showing they can limit runs effectively.

Key players like Pete Alonso, who has 22 home runs, and Francisco Lindor, with 20 home runs, provide power in the lineup. The Mets’ lineup also features Juan Soto, who has hit 25 home runs. With Frankie Montas on the mound, the Mets have a solid chance to continue their winning streak.

The Padres Can Win If…

The San Diego Padres are coming off a strong performance against the St. Louis Cardinals, winning 9-2. Manny Machado was a key player, going 4-for-5 with 3 RBIs. Fernando Tatis Jr. also contributed with 2 hits and 3 runs, showing the depth of the Padres’ lineup.

The Padres’ ability to generate hits is a key factor in their success. They rank 8th in the league with a .249 batting average and have hit 164 doubles, placing them 15th. Their pitching is also solid, with a team ERA of 3.60, which ranks 5th in the league.

San Diego’s starting pitcher, Dylan Cease, will look to bounce back. He has a 4.59 ERA and has shown the potential to perform well. With strong performances from both hitters and pitchers, the Padres have a good chance to win against the New York Mets.

Padres Host Surging Mets as Trade Rumors Swirl Around Cease

The San Diego Padres open a crucial three-game series at home against the New York Mets on Monday, but the buzz around Petco Park isn’t just about the playoff race — it’s about who might still be wearing a Padres uniform by the end of the week.

As the MLB trade deadline looms on Thursday, speculation is growing that Dylan Cease could be one of the biggest names moved. That makes his scheduled start against the sizzling Mets potentially his last in a San Diego jersey.

Cease Looks to End Skid and Boost Trade Value

Cease has struggled to find consistency in 2025. While his strikeout numbers remain strong — 144 punchouts in 113 2/3 innings — he’s allowed critical home runs and posted a disappointing 3-10 record with a 4.59 ERA. His most recent outing was a 3-2 loss in Miami, where a two-run homer was once again the difference.

“I still haven’t pitched great, to be honest,” Cease told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “Just focused on executing here.”

Against the Mets, history hasn’t been kind to Cease. He holds an 0-3 career mark with a 6.88 ERA in three starts against New York.

For fans looking for more actionable insights on this matchup and other games, don’t miss the latest MLB betting picks from ScoresAndStats.

Padres Return Home with Momentum After Series Win in St. Louis

Despite Cease’s struggles, the Padres come into the series with confidence. They ended a 5-5 road trip on a high note, blasting St. Louis 9-2 with 16 hits. The win helped them maintain a slim lead for the final NL Wild Card spot.

San Diego’s bats have been heating up, with offensive standouts like Jake Cronenworth praising the team’s resolve and readiness to return home.

“It’s going to be nice to sleep in our own beds,” Cronenworth said, a sentiment that underscores the fatigue from a long road stretch.

For an overview of team trends and current form, visit the MLB teams section.

Mets on Fire After Sweeping Giants

The Mets enter the series riding a seven-game win streak and fresh off a dominant sweep in San Francisco. Their 5-3 win on Sunday pushed them 1.5 games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East.

Right-hander Frankie Montas (3-1, 4.62 ERA) will take the mound for New York. He’s coming off a quality start against the Angels, allowing just two runs over 5 2/3 innings. Montas has had success against San Diego in the past, compiling a 1-0 record with a 3.86 ERA in three career outings.

The Mets also made a key bullpen acquisition ahead of the deadline, adding lefty Gregory Soto from the Orioles. Soto impressed in his debut with a clean inning, and he adds depth to a Mets bullpen that’s already been solid this season.

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Deadline Drama Looms Large

San Diego has yet to make a major move before the deadline, but Cease’s name is one of the most discussed among potential trade targets. Should the Padres fall behind in this series, GM A.J. Preller may feel the pressure to retool quickly.

On the other hand, the Mets have already signaled their aggressive intentions with the Soto acquisition and could be in line for more moves as they push for a deep playoff run.

Track the latest scores, trades, and playoff implications through the official MLB scoreboard and odds page.

And if you’re looking to sharpen your betting edge before the trade deadline reshapes the field, dig into the expert betting guide for MLB available now.

The Lean

The Padres are favored with a moneyline of -129. The Mets have a moneyline of +110. The Padres have a better batting average and fewer home runs given up. My model projects the Padres to win with a score of 5-4. I recommend taking the Padres on the moneyline.

The total for this game is set at 8.0, with the over at -112 and the under at -108. Both teams have strong pitching, with the Mets ranked 3rd in ERA and the Padres 5th. My model projects a total score of 9. I recommend taking the over for this game.