San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Predictions May 31st 2025

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates May 31st 2025

The Pirates are set to play against the Padres at PETCO Park on Saturday, May 31, 2025. The game is scheduled for 9:40 PM, and it will be a night game. Fans can expect an exciting matchup as both teams take the field.

Bailey Falter will start for the Pirates, bringing an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.14. On the other side, Dylan Cease will take the mound for the Padres with an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.25. Both pitchers will aim to lead their teams to victory under the lights.

Pirates vs Padres Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Pirates vs. Padres
• Venue: PETCO Park
• Date: Saturday, May 31, 2025
• Betting Odds: Padres -1.5 (+102), Pirates +1.5 (-124), Padres MoneyLine -221, Pirates MoneyLine +183, Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-111)

The Pirates Can Win If…

The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off a close 3-2 loss against the San Diego Padres. Despite the loss, the Pirates showed strong hitting with seven hits. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen both contributed with multiple hits, showcasing their ability to get on base.

One reason the Pirates can win is their strong base running. They have 56 stolen bases, ranking fourth in the league. This speed can help them score runs and put pressure on the Padres’ defense.

Bailey Falter will be starting for the Pirates, and he has been reliable with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. His performance can keep the Padres’ hitters in check. If the Pirates’ hitters can support him with timely hits, they have a good chance to win.

The Padres Can Win If…

The San Diego Padres recently secured a 3-2 win against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Nick Pivetta pitched six innings, allowing two runs and striking out eight. Key contributions came from Luis Arraez, Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill, each adding a hit and contributing to the team’s runs.

The Padres’ pitching staff has been solid, with a team ERA of 3.65, ranking 10th in the league. Their batting average against is .228, placing them sixth. These stats suggest the Padres have a strong chance to limit opposing teams’ scoring opportunities.

Offensively, the Padres are supported by top hitters like Manny Machado and Gavin Sheets. Machado has a batting average of .313, while Sheets leads the team with 11 home runs. With these hitters in the lineup, the Padres have the potential to produce runs and secure another win against the Pirates.

The Lean

The San Diego Padres are favored to win with a moneyline of -221. They have a stronger batting average and a lower ERA compared to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have a moneyline of +183. The model projects the Padres to win with a score of 5-3. Given these factors, the recommendation is to pick the Padres to win straight up.

The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5. The Padres have a solid pitching staff with a 3.65 ERA, while the Pirates have a 3.99 ERA. The model projects a total score of 8 runs. Considering the pitching and hitting stats, the recommendation is to take the over at 7.5.

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Padres Eye 11th Straight Win Over Pirates

The San Diego Padres will look to keep their recent dominance going against the Pittsburgh Pirates when the two teams clash Saturday in the second game of their weekend series. With Friday night’s 3-2 victory, San Diego has now won 10 consecutive games against Pittsburgh dating back to August 2024.

Despite collecting only three hits, the Padres showed why fundamentals and aggressive baserunning still matter. Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Luis Arraez all executed key hustle plays that led to two crucial runs, which ultimately decided the game.

Padres manager Mike Shildt praised the team’s awareness on the basepaths, stating that four heads-up plays were the key to clinching the close win.

Cease Looks to End Winless Stretch

San Diego turns to right-hander Dylan Cease (1-3, 4.58 ERA), who is still searching for his first win in nearly two months. He earned a no-decision in his last outing, a 5-3 Padres win over Atlanta, where he pitched five innings and struck out eight.

Cease has been solid but unlucky over his last nine starts. He’s had past success against the Pirates, holding a 1-0 record with a 2.87 ERA in four career appearances. In a May 2 start against Pittsburgh, he allowed two runs on three hits over four innings.

Get more insight into pitching matchups and betting value at the MLB expert betting guide.

Pirates Seek Offensive Consistency

While the Pirates outhit the Padres 7-3 on Friday, the end result was another frustrating loss, due in large part to a staggering 14 strikeouts. Henry Davis, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Adam Frazier combined to go 0-for-12 with 10 punchouts, highlighting the club’s ongoing issues in high-leverage moments.

Davis was called out on a borderline strike in the eighth inning, ending a potential rally and resulting in the ejection of interim manager Don Kelly.

However, there were positives. Spencer Horwitz, a recent acquisition from Toronto, delivered an RBI single and worked a late-inning walk. Returning from wrist surgery, he’s slowly becoming a reliable contributor in the heart of the lineup.

To stay on top of all team trends and upcoming game breakdowns, check out the latest MLB previews.

Falter Gets the Start for Pittsburgh

Lefty Bailey Falter (3-3, 3.47 ERA) will be on the mound for the Pirates. He last pitched Sunday in a 6-5 loss to Milwaukee, throwing 5 2/3 innings of three-run ball. Against the Padres, he holds a 3.38 ERA in four career appearances and was excellent in a May 3 outing, allowing just one run over seven innings.

Falter’s consistency gives the Pirates hope for a bounce-back, but they’ll need more disciplined at-bats to convert scoring chances into actual runs.

Explore who our experts are backing in this matchup on the MLB picks page.

Handicapper’s Spotlight: Who’s Hot?

For bettors seeking sharper edges, now is a good time to follow top-performing cappers on the best MLB handicappers leaderboard. One name to watch is Kyle Parker, who has been profitable in recent MLB stretches. With a keen eye for pitcher trends and underdog value, Parker has called several Padres wins in tight matchups like this one.

Get full access to his and other expert selections through the buy picks section.