San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions August 2nd 2025

Padres vs Cardinals Prediction: Can San Diego’s Bullpen Lock It Down Again?

The San Diego Padres look to keep rolling when they host the St. Louis Cardinals at PETCO Park on Saturday, August 2, 2025. First pitch is set for 10:10 PM ET with scattered clouds and a pleasant breeze in the forecast. Riding a six-game win streak, the Padres are favored at -135, while the Cardinals come in as +115 underdogs. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs.

Mason Miller’s debut, a high-velocity eighth inning in Friday’s 4-1 win, immediately boosted a Padres bullpen that already features Robert Suarez, Jason Adam, and Jeremiah Estrada. With Randy Vásquez (3.65 ERA) on the mound Saturday, San Diego will again lean on its dominant late-game arms to shut the door.

Cardinals Can Win If…

They clean up the defensive miscues and find production beyond solo home runs. The Cards committed two costly errors in Friday’s loss, leading to three unearned runs in the fifth inning.

Michael McGreevy (2-2, 4.91 ERA) will start after getting shelled by these same Padres just six days ago — allowing seven runs on nine hits. He’ll need help from a lineup that ranks 6th in batting average (.250) and 3rd in doubles (195), but has scored only one run across the last three games.

Player to Watch: Alec Burleson

Batting .287 with 14 homers, Burleson has been a consistent spark. Brendan Donovan (.285 AVG) adds contact value, but someone will need to step up against a Padres staff ranked third in ERA.

“We’re going to try to find at-bats for Nolan Gorman the best we can,”
— Cardinals exec John Mozeliak on the youth movement following Arenado’s injury

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Padres Can Win If…

They continue getting dominant bullpen performances and timely contact hitting. Vásquez has kept San Diego competitive all season (14-7 in his starts), and the Padres pen — boosted by Miller — may be the deepest in baseball.

Their offense quietly ranks 6th in MLB in average (.250) and is driven by stars Manny Machado (.302 AVG, 20 HR) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (17 HR). With a 3.56 team ERA (3rd-best in MLB), San Diego’s formula of early offense and bullpen shutdowns is proving sustainable.

Player to Watch: Randy Vásquez

Vásquez pitched 4 2/3 innings of one-hit ball against St. Louis last week and owns a 2.53 ERA in two career starts vs the Cards. With Miller and Suarez waiting in the wings, the righty doesn’t need to go deep — just keep it close.

“We’ll use them and deploy them like we have all year... putting them in good spots to succeed,”
— Padres manager Mike Shildt on his bullpen strategy

Key MLB Betting Trends

Recent Form

• Padres: 6-game win streak; 6-4 in last 10 games
• Cardinals: 3-7 in last 10 games; 3-game losing streak

Get more insights and breakdowns by checking our daily MLB game results.

O/U Trends

• Under has hit in 5 of the Padres’ last 8 games
• Cardinals have scored just 1 run total in their last 3 games

Run Line Records

• Padres: 60-50 ATS
• Cardinals: 53-58 ATS

The Lean

The Padres are red-hot and firing on all cylinders — pitching, defense, and bullpen. The Cardinals are sliding and struggling to generate offense. While McGreevy looks to bounce back, San Diego has already solved him once.

Official Pick: Padres -135 ML
Model Score Projection: Padres 5, Cardinals 3
Lean: Under 8.5 (-106) — with the Padres’ elite pen and the Cards’ offensive slump, expect another low-scoring game.

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