San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions July 25th 2025

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets July 25th 2025

The New York Mets travel to Oracle Park to play against the San Francisco Giants on Friday, July 25, 2025. The game starts at 10:15 PM, and fans can watch it on NBCS. The weather forecast predicts mild conditions with a light breeze and few clouds.

With a record of 59-44, the Mets aim to improve their road performance, which currently stands at 22-28. The Giants, holding a 54-49 record, look to capitalize on their home-field advantage, where they are 28-20. Starting on the mound for the Mets is Clay Holmes, while the Giants counter with Logan Webb.

Mets vs Giants Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
• Venue: Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA
• Date: Friday, July 25, 2025
• Betting Odds: Mets Moneyline +119, Giants Moneyline -140, Mets Runline +1.5 (-187), Giants Runline -1.5 (+155), Total Over 7.5 (-107), Total Under 7.5 (-113)

The Mets Can Win If…

The New York Mets are coming off a strong win against the Los Angeles Angels, securing a 6-3 victory. Sean Manaea delivered a solid performance on the mound, pitching 5 innings with only 2 hits and 1 earned run. Key hitters like Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso stepped up, each contributing home runs to the team’s success.

The Mets have shown strong stats this season, ranking 8th in both on-base percentage and home runs. Their slugging percentage is 9th in the league, which shows their ability to hit for power. With a team ERA of 3.59, the pitching staff has been reliable, ranking 4th in the league.

Pete Alonso is a key player to watch, leading the team with 22 home runs and 80 RBIs. Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo also provide consistent offense, each with 19 home runs. With Clay Holmes starting, who holds an ERA of 3.48, the Mets have a strong chance to continue their winning streak.

The Giants Can Win If…

The San Francisco Giants are coming off a strong 9-3 win over the Atlanta Braves. Rafael Devers was a standout, going 3-for-5 with two home runs and four RBIs. Justin Verlander also shined on the mound, allowing just one hit over five innings.

The Giants’ pitching staff has been a key strength this season. They hold a 3.62 ERA, which ranks sixth in the league. Their ability to limit home runs, with only 88 allowed, is the best in the league.

Logan Webb will start for the Giants in their next game. Webb’s 3.08 ERA and 9-7 record show his reliability on the mound. With hitters like Devers and Chapman in form, the Giants have a solid chance to secure another win.

The Lean

The Giants are favored with a moneyline of -140 against the Mets’ +119. The Giants have a better team batting average and slugging percentage, ranking 14th and 9th respectively. The Mets rank 18th and 21st in these categories. My model projects the Giants to win with a score of 4-3, so the pick is the Giants to win straight up.

The total for the game is set at 7.5 runs, with the over at -107 and the under at -113. Both teams have strong pitching, with the Giants having a 3.59 ERA and the Mets a 3.62 ERA. Given these stats, my model projects a total of 7 runs. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the under 7.5.

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Rafael Devers, Juan Soto Face Familiar Foes as Mets Visit Giants

Two superstars in new uniforms will meet familiar opponents when the New York Mets open a three-game road series against the San Francisco Giants on Friday night.

Want an edge on tonight’s matchup? See how the top MLB handicappers are stacking up this week and find out who’s hot before placing your bets!

Rafael Devers, now with San Francisco, last faced the Mets in May as a member of the Boston Red Sox. He collected just two hits in that three-game set, one of which was a solo home run off Clay Holmes — the same pitcher he’ll face in Friday’s opener. Holmes pitched Devers carefully in that earlier matchup, walking him four times in 12 plate appearances.

Holmes (8-5, 3.48 ERA) has seen Devers nine times in his career, allowing just two hits — that home run and a single — while issuing two walks, one of them intentional.

The right-hander was sharp in June, posting a 2.93 ERA over five starts, but July has been rockier with an 0-1 record and 5.66 ERA in four outings. Holmes, who has already thrown nearly 40 innings more than in any previous season, believes his adjustments are starting to take shape.

“There has been a lot of growth,” Holmes told reporters. “I have a large enough sample size now to know what’s working and what’s holding me back. As long as I get ground balls and avoid beating myself, I like where I’m headed.”

Holmes has pitched against the Giants nine times in his career — mostly in relief — going 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and one save. Friday will be just his second career start against San Francisco.

The Giants will counter with ace Logan Webb (9-7, 3.08 ERA), who’s also looking to stabilize after a rough month. Webb is 2-1 in July but has a 6.00 ERA, surrendering 24 hits in 18 innings. Despite his recent struggles, Webb has dominated the Mets historically, going 3-1 with a 2.13 ERA in six starts while striking out 35 in 38 innings.

Webb also has plenty of history with Juan Soto, previously a frequent opponent when Soto played for the Padres. Webb retired Soto in 12 of their first 13 meetings (the lone exception being a walk) but has since allowed three hits and a sacrifice fly in their last four matchups, most recently when Soto was a Yankee in June 2024.

Soto enters this series needing a spark. After homering four times in his first 13 July games, he has gone just 1-for-16, dropping his season average to .253.

Devers, meanwhile, has heated up after a slow start with the Giants. He went just 20-for-97 (.206) with 36 strikeouts in his first 27 games but has collected eight hits in his last four contests, including two home runs in Wednesday’s 9-3 win over Atlanta. He believes returning to the field at first base has helped him lock back in.

“It keeps me active. It keeps my head out of just thinking about the next at-bat,” Devers said. “I’m the kind of player that likes to be active, likes to be on the field. I’d rather be on the field than be in the cage thinking about hitting all the time.”

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