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San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates July 28th 2025
Pirates vs Giants Key Information
- Sport: Baseball
- Teams: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants
- Venue: Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA
- Date: Monday, July 28, 2025
- Betting Odds: Pirates Moneyline +105, Giants Moneyline -124
The Pirates Can Win If…
The Pittsburgh Pirates enter this game after a strong 6-0 win against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Paul Skenes led the way with six scoreless innings and nine strikeouts. Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds both contributed with key hits and RBIs, showcasing the team’s balanced attack.
The Pirates’ pitching staff ranks 7th in the league with a 3.72 ERA, providing a solid foundation for their success. They also hold a 6th place rank in batting average against, limiting opponents to a .233 average. Their ability to keep opponents’ runs low will be crucial in this matchup.
Mitch Keller takes the mound for the Pirates with a 3.53 ERA and a WHIP of 1.16. His ability to control games is evident, even with a 4-10 record. With support from hitters like Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham, the Pirates have the tools to secure another win.
The Giants Can Win If…
The San Francisco Giants are coming off a 3-5 loss against the New York Mets. Matt Chapman was the standout player, hitting two home runs and driving in three runs. Willy Adames also contributed with two hits, showing the potential for a strong offense.
The Giants have a solid pitching staff with a team ERA of 3.66, ranking 6th in the league. Their ability to limit home runs is notable, as they rank 1st in HR given up with only 91 allowed. This strong pitching could give them the edge against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Rafael Devers leads the Giants with a batting average of .261 and 19 home runs, providing a reliable power source. Matt Chapman adds to the lineup with 16 home runs and a .243 average. With these key players, the Giants have the potential to put up runs and secure a win in their next game.
The Lean
The Giants are favored with a moneyline of -124. My model projects the Giants to win with a score of 4-3. The Giants have a stronger pitching staff, ranking 6th in ERA and 12th in batting average against, which gives them an edge over the Pirates.
The total for the game is set at 7.5 runs. My model projects a total of 7 runs. With both teams having strong pitching and lower-ranked offenses, the under 7.5 at -103 is the recommended pick.
Pirates Stay Hot, Set for Series Against Sliding Giants
The Pittsburgh Pirates are suddenly playing spoiler — and doing it well. After a low point in their season that saw them swept at home by the Chicago White Sox, the Pirates have flipped the narrative, winning five of six heading into their series opener against the San Francisco Giants on Monday.
With postseason hopes fading, the Giants are in a desperate hunt for consistency. They’ll turn to a rookie pitcher in hopes of sparking a turnaround, while Pittsburgh continues to find life behind a surging bullpen and timely hitting.
Pirates’ Resurgence Shifts Trade Deadline Narrative
Pittsburgh’s recent run — highlighted by series wins over the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks — has reinvigorated the clubhouse. Players once expected to be dealt, like center fielder Oneil Cruz, are now talking about who might join them instead.
“Whoever comes to help us win, it’s welcome,” Cruz said after Sunday’s win. “We’ll do our best to welcome him in a good way.”
Tommy Pham (9-for-20) and Spencer Horwitz (7 RBIs) fueled the offense, while the bullpen held three teams scoreless in back-to-back-to-back games.
Keller Set for Showcase Start
Right-hander Mitch Keller (4-10, 3.53 ERA) gets the nod in the opener. After a rocky start to 2024, Keller has turned a corner — going 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA over his last seven starts. He helped deliver a key win over Detroit last week and enters Monday’s game with renewed confidence.
Keller owns a 1-2 record and a 4.91 ERA in four career starts against San Francisco.
To follow all player stats and pitching trends ahead of this series, check the official MLB team pages on ScoresAndStats.
Whisenhunt to Debut for Slumping Giants
The Giants will counter with Carson Whisenhunt, who will make his major league debut after being promoted from Triple-A Sacramento. The 24-year-old lefty posted an 8-5 record with a 4.42 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 97 2/3 innings this season.
San Francisco will be looking to avoid repeating its disastrous offensive performance against the Mets, where they were swept and went 0-for-23 with runners in scoring position across three games.
Manager Bob Melvin’s attempt to juggle the lineup — including giving Rafael Devers reps at first base — has yet to pay off. Wilmer Flores returned to the DH role during the series but the Giants still struggled to generate offense.
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Betting Preview and Series Outlook
With momentum on their side and Keller on the mound, the Pirates could present value early in the series. Bettors can find sharp analysis and MLB betting picks that weigh recent form and pitching matchups.
For updated moneyline, total runs, and player prop insights, check the latest MLB scores and odds before placing bets.
Curious about betting angles or strategy? Dive into the MLB expert betting guide to refine your approach during the second half of the season.
