San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions September 22nd 2025

Cardinals vs Giants Picks and Predictions — September 22, 2025

The St. Louis Cardinals visit the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on Monday, September 22, 2025, in a critical series opener. Both clubs are hanging on to slim NL wild‑card hopes; a win here could swing momentum. Probable starters: Michael McGreevy (Cardinals) vs. Justin Verlander (Giants).

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Opening Odds: Giants ML ~ –150 | Cardinals ML ~ +125 | Over/Under around 8.0 runs

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Cardinals Can Win If…

• McGreevy can limit damage early. Though he has given up runs versus the Giants before, when he’s had strong command and kept the walks down, he’s kept St. Louis in games.
• The lineup delivers clutch hitting. With Arenado likely done for the season, lesser‑known bats need to step up – singles, timely doubles, and taking advantage of Giants mistakes will matter.
• The bullpen holds together. With fatigue and pressure mounting, the Cards need their relievers to be sharp in middle and late innings.

“We lose the first three (in LA), we’re losing ground every day. To be able to come back … there was a lot riding on it for us,” said Giants manager Bob Melvin after their recent win.

Giants Can Win If…

• Verlander continues his recent run of quality outings. He’s shown flashes this season of keeping opposing hitters off balance and can be especially dangerous at home.
• San Francisco gets offense early. If they score in the first few innings, pressure shifts to St. Louis and its bullpen. Players like Rafael Devers need to avoid first‑inning cold starts.
• Errors & momentum don’t go to the Cardinals. Mental mistakes, sloppy fielding, or base running errors could flip tight games, and Giants can’t afford them.

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

Pick: Giants Moneyline
Projected Final Score: Giants 5, Cardinals 3
Total Lean: Over 8.0

The Giants are slightly more likely to pull this out, given home field, Verlander’s better recent performance, and the Cardinals’ inconsistent offense without Arenado. Expect the Giants to jump on St. Louis early and take advantage of any slippage in the bullpen. Also lean toward the over, since both starters have had trouble putting away teams when trailing.

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