Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Picks and Predictions May 14th 2025

Moment um Matters

Seattle’s extra‑inning victory snapped a season‑high four‑game skid and renewed clubhouse energy. Edgar Martinez and hitting coach Kevin Seitzer have stressed contact quality—already trimming strikeouts by more than one per game over 2024. The Mariners now sit two games over .500 and view Wednesday’s wrap‑around contest as a springboard before an AL West road swing.

Castillo’s Command vs. Warren’s First Test

Luis Castillo (3‑3, 3.95 ERA) owns a 2.95 lifetime mark against New York, thriving on late‑sinking two‑seamers and wipe‑out sliders. His challenge: neutralize Juan Soto’s zone discipline and Anthony Rizzo’s short porch power. Rookie Will Warren (2‑2, 4.75 ERA) makes his first career appearance vs. Seattle, armed with a sweeper that generates a 35 percent whiff rate. How quickly he adapts to T‑Mobile’s marine layer and Seattle’s patience will define his outing length.

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Plate Discipline & Contact Shifts

Seattle’s 2025 mantra—“control the zone”—manifests in 4.05 pitches per plate appearance, highest in the AL. J.P. Crawford (.271) embodies the shift after a .202 season, coaxing deep counts and slashing liners to all fields. New York counters with a league‑leading hard‑hit rate (46 percent), but went 0‑for‑14 with runners in scoring position on Tuesday. Cutting chase rates against Castillo’s two‑strike slider is mission‑critical for Aaron Judge, who is 4‑for‑19 on the trip.

Yankees’ Injury Shuffle

Oswaldo Cabrera’s fractured ankle forces infield reshuffling—look for DJ LeMahieu at third and Gleyber Torres sliding between second and DH splits. Boone may call up Oswald Peraza for bench depth, but defensive synergy will be tested on slow turf. Limiting extra outs behind Warren will keep pressure off a taxed bullpen that threw 4 ⅔ frames Tuesday.

Bullpen Blueprint & Late‑Game Edge

Seattle’s pen ranks third in AL ERA (3.23); Andrés Muñoz blew the save Tuesday yet owns a 37 percent strikeout rate. Setup men Matt Brash and Gabe Speier provide platoon leverage, enabling manager Dan Wilson to mix matchups in the eighth. New York’s late impact hinges on Clay Holmes’ sinker consistency and Luke Weaver bridging middle innings if Warren exits early.

Wager Window

Pitching volatility and improved Mariners patience lend value to first‑five‑innings unders. For side‑select plays, total‑base props on Crawford and Judge, and deeper analytics, consult our single highlighted resource for MLB Betting Picks before first pitch.