Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Predictions May 11th 2025

Dire Homestand Context

Colorado enters Sunday at 6‑33, tied with the 1988 Orioles for the worst 39‑game start in 130 years. After surrendering 63 runs in five games to Detroit and San Diego—including Saturday’s franchise‑worst 21‑0 loss—the Rockies must stop the bleeding before a road swing. Manager Bud Black praised clubhouse fight, yet acknowledged mounting frustration as pitchers Bradley Blalock and Juan Mejia combined for 19 runs in five innings Saturday.

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Pitching Matchup: Márquez’s Redemption vs. Pivetta’s Coors Woes

Germán Márquez (0‑6, 9.90 ERA) has logged three of Colorado’s meager starting victories in past seasons but none this year. Despite an 0‑6 mark, he owns a lifetime 10‑4 record and 4.62 ERA against San Diego. His task: command the curveball low to induce grounders and limit early crooked numbers. Nick Pivetta (5‑1, 2.01 ERA) counters with a stellar 2025, yet Coors Field remains his kryptonite (18.90 ERA in 10 innings). Pivetta must keep cutters down and changeups away to avoid the altitude‑aided big inning that has plagued him in Denver.

Offensive Contrasts: Padres on Fire, Rockies in Drought

San Diego’s offense erupted for five homers and 24 hits Saturday—its second straight game setting season highs—led by Luis Arraez’s five knocks and Manny Machado’s grand slam. Eight Padres recorded multi‑hit nights, highlighting depth that hunts fastballs early in counts. Colorado has scored 18 runs on the entire homestand. Only Ryan McMahon (.284) shows consistent barrel rates; the rest of the lineup owns a collective .211 average with runners in scoring position. Exploiting Pivetta’s early wildness may be their lone path to reversing momentum.

Key Battlefield: Bullpen & Defensive Execution

Colorado’s bullpen holds MLB’s worst ERA (5.89) and faces heavy innings if Márquez exits early. San Diego’s relievers are rested after Stephen Kolek’s complete‑game shutout Saturday, giving manager Mike Shildt flexibility to match up late. Defensive miscues loom: the Rockies rank bottom three in Defensive Runs Saved, and misplayed fly balls can snowball at Coors. Sharp infield shifts against Juan Soto’s pull tendencies and crisp relay throws are essential for Colorado to keep the game within reach.

Betting Lens and Projection

The altitude, two volatile starters and San Diego’s red‑hot lineup tilt bettors toward overs on total runs and Padres team totals. For detailed prop angles—first‑inning scoring, home‑run odds and bullpen strikeouts—visit MLB Betting Picks before first pitch.