St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Predictions June 23rd 2025

Ian Happ’s Power Surge Fuels Cubs for First Showdown with Rival Cardinals

The calendar may say June, but the atmosphere in St. Louis this week will have the distinct feel of October. For the first time this season, two of baseball’s most storied rivals will clash as the National League Central-leading Chicago Cubs open a crucial four-game series against the host St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night. Led by the scorching-hot bat of Ian Happ, the Cubs will look to extend their division lead, while the Cardinals aim to close the gap and prove they belong in the race.

The Ian Happ Home Run Explosion

For the first two months of the season, Ian Happ was the picture of frustration. The Cubs’ switch-hitting outfielder, who hit 25 home runs last year, had just three through the end of May. But when the calendar flipped to June, something clicked. Happ has been on an absolute tear this month, launching eight home runs to rediscover his power stroke. Seven of those homers have come in his last 12 games, a torrid pace that has seen his slugging percentage jump from .350 over the first two months to a whopping .573 in June.

“When you’re sitting there in the middle of May with three homers, you’re definitely frustrated,” Happ admitted. “You just want to do more, want to help more. But I’ve done this long enough that I have confidence it’s going to show up at some point if you just keep making the right swings. Obviously, the last couple weeks, it’s happened.”

His manager, Craig Counsell, never lost faith. “We knew this was coming,” Counsell said. “I don’t want to say it’s expected, but there was a home-run streak coming for him.” Happ’s resurgence has provided a massive jolt to an already potent Cubs offense.

A Rivalry with Raised Stakes

The Cardinals enter this series knowing exactly what’s at stake. They sit 4 1/2 games behind the Cubs in the standings and understand that this first head-to-head meeting is their best opportunity to make up ground. After a five-game winning streak of their own was snapped on Sunday, they are eager to start a new one at the expense of their biggest rival.

“Obviously, we know that (the Cubs) have been playing good ball and that’s a team in our division that we’re looking to catch up to,” said outfielder Lars Nootbaar. “Any time you play the Cubs, it’s always a fun series, and when the stakes are a little higher, there’s probably a little more intensity with it.” The Cardinals are particularly happy to be playing at Busch Stadium, where they have a strong 24-15 record and where their offensive approach seems to play best.

Chicago’s Leaky Pitching

While the Cubs’ offense is firing on all cylinders, their pitching has been a major concern lately. This presents a significant opportunity for the Cardinals. In their last three losses, Chicago’s pitchers have been shelled for 31 runs. Overall, they’ve allowed 38 runs in their last four games. This sudden inability to keep opponents off the scoreboard has created a vulnerability that St. Louis will be keen to exploit. This dynamic of a great offense paired with a struggling pitching staff is a classic puzzle for bettors, a topic often explored in our expert betting guide.

Dive into Advanced MLB Metrics

Subscribe Today

Get Free Trial

The Pitching Matchup

Monday’s game will feature two pitchers looking to set a strong tone for their respective clubs. The Cubs will send out right-hander Ben Brown (4-5, 5.57 ERA), who will be making his first career appearance against the rival Cardinals. The pressure will be on him to be the “stopper” for Chicago’s recent pitching woes.

The Cardinals will counter with left-hander Matthew Liberatore (4-6, 4.08 ERA). Liberatore has the benefit of pitching at home but has struggled in his career against the Cubs, posting a 4.38 ERA in eight appearances. This intriguing matchup will be a key focus on the scores and odds board.

The Road Ahead

This four-game set is more than just a regular series for these MLB teams. A series win for the Cubs could create significant separation in the division, while a series win for the Cardinals would signal that the NL Central race is going to be a dogfight all summer long. To see who our experts think will win the crucial opener, check out our daily MLB picks.