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Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction: Can Boyd Keep Chicago in NL Central Race?
The Chicago Cubs head to Busch Stadium on Friday, August 8, 2025, to open a three-game NL Central showdown with the St. Louis Cardinals. First pitch is set for 8:15 PM ET on MLBN, with clear skies and a light breeze in the forecast.
Chicago (66-48) sits second in the division, chasing Milwaukee, while St. Louis (58-58) is looking to climb above .500 and keep its slim playoff hopes alive. The Cubs are -153 favorites, with the Cardinals at +130. The run line is Cubs -1.5 (+110) / Cardinals +1.5 (-132), and the total is 8.5 runs (O -104 / U -117).
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Cubs Can Win If…
Kyle Tucker returns fresh and productive after two days off. The All-Star is hitting .271 with 18 homers and 61 RBIs, and Chicago’s lineup has been lethal with the long ball — 4th in MLB in home runs (164) and 3rd in slugging (.439). Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong each have 27 home runs, giving Matthew Boyd plenty of potential run support.
Boyd (11-4, 2.34 ERA) has been exceptional, especially against the Cardinals. He’s 3-1 with a 1.29 ERA in five career starts versus St. Louis, including two scoreless outings this season totaling 11 innings.
If Boyd maintains his dominance and Chicago’s bats strike early against a struggling rookie, the Cubs should control the opener.
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Cardinals Can Win If…
Michael McGreevy delivers his best start yet. The rookie right-hander (3-2, 5.08 ERA) has been hit hard in his last two outings, surrendering 11 runs in 10 2/3 innings. He’ll need sharper command against a Cubs team that punishes mistakes.
St. Louis can match Chicago’s offense when it strings together hits. They rank 10th in batting average (.249) and 8th in OBP (.318), with 200 doubles (5th in MLB). Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, and Lars Nootbaar have been key catalysts, with Nootbaar driving in two runs in Wednesday’s win over the Dodgers.
If McGreevy can keep the ball in the park and the offense attacks Boyd early in counts, St. Louis can hang around.
Key MLB Betting Trends
| Trend Type | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Form | 5-5 in last 10 games | 4-6 in last 10 games |
| Run Line Record | Covered in 4 of last 6 wins | Failed to cover in 4 of last 5 losses |
| Total (O/U) | Over is 5-2 in last 7 games | Over is 4-1 in last 5 home games |
| Head-to-Head | Won 4 of last 6 vs Cardinals | 3-2 in last 5 home games vs Cubs |
The Lean
The pitching matchup heavily favors Chicago. Boyd’s track record against St. Louis and the Cubs’ superior power make them the logical side, though the Cardinals’ doubles power could push this total over.
Prediction: Cubs 5, Cardinals 4
Best Bet: Cubs ML (-153)
Bonus Lean: Over 8.5 (-104)
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