St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions June 21st 2025

Alec Burleson’s June Surge Fuels Cardinals’ Push Against Reds

The St. Louis Cardinals have found a spark in the bat of Alec Burleson, whose breakout performance over the last two months has coincided with a four-game winning streak. After a slow April, Burleson’s disciplined approach has lifted his season line to .312 with a .460 slugging percentage, and he’ll look to extend his eight-game hitting streak in Saturday’s middle contest of the three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds.

Score a Homerun!

With our Premium Handicapping Membership

Get Free Trial

April Slump to June Surge

Burleson opened the season batting just .260 with a .294 slugging percentage through the first month. In late April, manager Oliver Marmol invited him for an informal meeting—complete with drinks and candid conversation—to refocus his mindset. The effect was immediate. May saw him hit .303, and he carried that momentum into June, posting a .391 average with multiple extra-base hits each week. His ability to drive the ball to all fields has been on full display, and his eight-game streak now stands as the longest active streak in the majors.

That stretch has coincided with St. Louis climbing the National League Central standings. Veteran voices in the clubhouse credit Burleson’s energy as infectious, helping the lineup sustain rallies late into games.

Earning a Pitch to Hit

Rather than pressing for results, Burleson has refined his pre-at-bat routine to “earn a pitch I can drive.” He’s decreased his chase rate by over 5 percentage points compared to last year and has improved his hard-contact rate by nearly 7 percent. The former .195 hitter against southpaws in 2024 is now at .303 versus left-handers, and he’s matching that output against righties at .313.

For bettors seeking an edge, our latest MLB picks delve into how plate discipline trends like these can influence run-line and total-runs markets. Our Expert Betting Guide for MLB also breaks down how to interpret underlying metrics when setting your wagers.

Key Pitching Matchups

Saturday’s opener will feature veteran reliever Brent Suter (1–0, 2.91 ERA) in an opener role for Cincinnati. In 37 career appearances against St. Louis, Suter has limited the Cards to a 3.34 ERA, relying on a sinker-slider mix to induce ground balls. His experience against Burleson will test how well the young slugger handles late-breaking offerings.

On the other side, St. Louis will send Sonny Gray (7–2, 3.84 ERA) to the mound. Gray’s road numbers at Great American Ball Park are less kind—1–3 with a 4.70 ERA in four starts—but he’s generated a 28 percent strikeout rate overall this season. Our in-depth MLB previews examine how starting-pitcher splits like these can sway over/under and money-line odds.

Reds Seek Response

Cincinnati’s bullpen imploded in Friday’s seventh inning, yielding five runs that turned a one-run game into a rout. Manager Terry Francona pointed to missed opportunities: “Good teams make you pay when you slip up.” The Reds have gone 10–14 against division rivals and dropped six of seven series in the Central, yet they remain within striking distance of a Wild Card spot.

Friday’s starter Brady Singer, tagged with the loss after allowing three runs over five innings, remains confident. “I trust this team. We’ve had a great season so far,” he said. Fans and bettors can gauge broader market sentiment by checking our handicapper leaderboard, or upgrade to premium picks for tailor-made wagering advice.

What to Watch

Saturday’s 3:15 p.m. first pitch highlights a classic duel: a hot hitter in peak form versus two pitchers with clear strengths and situational weaknesses. Keep an eye on Burleson’s approach early in counts—if he gets his pitch, he’s capable of driving the scoreboard. Equally, watch Suter’s release point and Gray’s fastball location, as either could determine whether St. Louis extends its win streak or Cincinnati mounts a comeback in the series. Whether you’re tracking the six-game homestand or mapping out your next wager, there’s plenty at stake under the summer sun in St. Louis.