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Reds vs Cardinals Picks and Predictions — September 16, 2025
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals clash Tuesday at Busch Stadium in a matchup carrying NL wild-card stakes.
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Cincinnati (75-75) enters two games back of the New York Mets for the final playoff spot, while St. Louis (73-78) sits 4.5 games out and fading after losing six of its last seven.
Track the NL wild-card race 👉 Updated MLB standings here
Reds Can Win If…
- Andrew Abbott keeps rolling. The lefty (9-6, 2.79 ERA) has dominated the Cardinals this season with a 1.69 ERA across three starts.
- The lineup builds off Monday’s breakout. Cincinnati erupted for 11 runs, led by Sal Stewart’s HR and three hits. Matt McLain and Tyler Stephenson also chipped in two hits apiece.
- Elly De La Cruz handles less pressure. Dropped to the 7-hole, De La Cruz responded with a double and two walks, showing signs he can produce without carrying the order.
Cardinals Can Win If…
- Michael McGreevy repeats his last outing vs. the Reds. The rookie righty (6-3, 4.44 ERA) allowed just one run over six innings against Cincinnati on Aug. 30 in a 4-2 win.
- Nolan Arenado sparks the lineup. Back from a long absence, he went 2-for-4 with an RBI on Monday. His presence adds needed thump in the middle of the order.
- The offense converts hits into runs. The Cards had 10 hits in the series opener but stranded opportunities. With Willson Contreras banged up, Alec Burleson and Arenado will need to carry the load.
Key Betting Trends
| Category | Reds | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 75-75 (3rd NL Central) | 73-78 (4th NL Central) |
| Form (Last 10) | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Starting Pitcher | Andrew Abbott (2.79 ERA) | Michael McGreevy (4.44 ERA) |
| Last Meeting | CIN 11, STL 6 (Sept. 15) |
The Leans
Main Pick: Reds ML (-114)
Projected Score: Reds 5, Cardinals 4
- Moneyline Angle: Abbott’s form and Cincinnati’s higher on-base percentage give them the edge.
- Total Runs Angle: Over 8.0 (-115). My model projects 9 runs, with both teams showing offensive signs despite shaky recent play.
Best Bet Box
Best Bet: Reds ML (-114)
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Playoff baseball starts now for Cincinnati. 👉 See today’s MLB best bets
