St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions May 2nd 2025

New York Mets Seek Spark in St. Louis After Arizona Setback

Coming off a tough home series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the New York Mets are hoping a change of scenery — and a red-hot Juan Soto — can help them bounce back on Friday as they visit the St. Louis Cardinals for a weekend showdown at Busch Stadium.

Despite dropping the final two games of their three-game series against the D-backs, the Mets remain a formidable force in the National League, sitting just behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the standings. At 21-11, they’re tied for the second-best record in baseball, but recent offensive struggles have shown some cracks in the armor.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals come into the series after a 2-2 split with the Cincinnati Reds, and while the finale was forgettable — a lopsided 9-1 loss — the club is showing signs of life after a rocky road start to 2024.

Soto’s Bat Comes Alive at the Right Time

For all the big expectations surrounding Juan Soto’s $765 million signing, the Mets’ new cornerstone has been trying to find his rhythm at the plate. And just when questions started to surface, he gave a loud answer.

In Thursday’s 4-2 loss to Arizona, Soto blasted two solo home runs, accounting for all of New York’s scoring. Those were his first homers since April 15, snapping a 14-game homerless drought during which he hit just .231 with a pedestrian .288 slugging percentage.

Still, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza wasn’t too concerned.

“He’s been hitting the ball hard. We’ve seen the quality of his at-bats,” Mendoza said. “But when he’s going gap-to-gap like that — especially to left-center — he’s one of the most dangerous hitters in the game.”

Now with five home runs on the year, Soto could be on the verge of a tear, which would be welcome news for a Mets offense that’s cooled down a bit in recent games.

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Cardinals Looking for Consistency

The St. Louis Cardinals, meanwhile, are trying to find an identity after an up-and-down start to the season. Thursday’s loss to the Reds was their 15th of the year, but they remain very much in the mix in the NL Central thanks to an improving lineup and strong starting pitching.

They’ll send Sonny Gray (3-0, 3.60 ERA) to the mound for Friday’s opener — a proven veteran who’s already notched wins against Houston and San Diego this season. Gray has faced the Mets once already this year, giving up three runs over six innings on April 20 in a game the Cardinals eventually lost 7-4.

He enters the weekend with strong career numbers against New York, holding a 4-0 record and 2.76 ERA in five starts.

“Gray gives us a chance every time he’s out there,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said earlier this month. “He’s a bulldog. Even when he doesn’t have his best stuff, he finds ways to compete.”

The Cardinals have also been much better at home, hitting .289 at Busch Stadium compared to .214 on the road.

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Clay Holmes Making a Name for Himself

Opposing Gray will be Clay Holmes (3-1, 2.64 ERA), who’s been a pleasant surprise for the Mets’ rotation. After a shaky start to the season, Holmes has locked in over his last three outings, giving up just two earned runs in 16 innings while striking out 16 batters.

He’s already seen the Cardinals once this year — that same April 20 game — and performed admirably, allowing just one run on four hits over six innings.

Though that was his first career start against St. Louis, Holmes has 12 appearances under his belt against the Redbirds, posting a 6.16 ERA — most of that damage coming from earlier relief stints before he became a starter.

The key for Holmes? Limiting hard contact. He’s improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio and is consistently getting ahead in the count — a must against a Cardinals team that thrives on fastballs in hitter’s counts.

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Offense vs. Pitching: A Classic Matchup

Both the Mets and Cardinals feature some serious bats, but pitching is likely to be the story on Friday. Let’s break down the key offensive performers and what each lineup needs to do.

Mets’ X-Factor: Francisco Lindor

While Juan Soto is the headline, Francisco Lindor has quietly picked up the pace after a slow start. If Soto can stay hot and Lindor gets on base consistently, the Mets could break out of their recent scoring funk.

Cardinals’ Key Bat: Brendan Donovan

The Cardinals’ do-it-all utilityman has been a steady presence near the top of the lineup. Donovan spoke postgame about the team’s growth, especially on the road — and he’ll be a tone-setter back at home, where the Cardinals’ offense tends to flourish.

Key Matchup Statistics

What’s at Stake?

For the Mets, this series is a chance to stabilize after a brief stumble. They’re still a top-tier team in the National League, but with the Phillies and Braves both charging hard, every series win counts.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, are trying to prove they belong in the playoff conversation. A win Friday would help shake off the sour taste of Thursday’s loss and send a message to the rest of the division that they’re not just a .500 ballclub.

Prediction: Who Takes Game One?

With both teams sending capable arms to the hill, expect a low-scoring affair. The Mets’ offense hasn’t fully clicked yet, and Gray knows how to navigate pressure games. On the flip side, Holmes has quietly been a rock in the Mets’ rotation.

Still, the edge might go to the home team here. St. Louis is hitting the ball much better at home, and Sonny Gray has the track record — especially against the Mets — to tilt the scales in their favor.

Prediction: Cardinals 4, Mets 3

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