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St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates August 28th 2025
Pirates vs Cardinals Key Information
- Sport: Baseball
- Teams: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Venue: Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO
- Date: Thursday, August 28, 2025
- Betting Odds: Pirates Moneyline +105, Cardinals Moneyline -124, Pirates Runline +1.5 (-195), Cardinals Runline -1.5 (+162), Total Over 8.5 (-109), Total Under 8.5 (-111)
The Pirates Can Win If…
The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off a tight 2-1 win against the St. Louis Cardinals. Carmen Mlodzinski pitched three innings, allowing just one run and striking out four batters. Tommy Pham was key with two RBIs, helping the Pirates secure the victory.
The Pirates have shown strong pitching recently, with a team ERA of 3.93, ranking 14th in the league. Their ability to limit opponents’ batting average to .236 is impressive, ranking them 7th in this category. With Braxton Ashcraft on the mound, who has a solid ERA of 2.70, the Pirates have a good chance to keep runs low.
Offensively, the Pirates have some power hitters like Bryan Reynolds, who has 14 home runs this season. Their lineup also includes Andrew McCutchen, who leads the team with 12 home runs and 49 RBIs. With a recent win streak, the Pirates are in a strong position to continue their success against the Cardinals.
The Cardinals Can Win If…
The St. Louis Cardinals lost their last game to the Pittsburgh Pirates, 2-1. Sonny Gray had a strong outing, pitching seven innings and allowing only one earned run. Pedro Pagés led the offense with two hits and one RBI, showing he can contribute when needed.
The Cardinals have a solid batting average of .248, ranking 8th in the league. They are also 6th in doubles with 220, which shows they can create scoring opportunities. Their pitching needs improvement, but they have 47 quality starts this season, ranking 12th, which suggests potential for strong performances.
Key players like Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras bring power to the lineup with 16 and 19 home runs, respectively. Burleson also has a .288 batting average, making him a consistent threat at the plate. With these players leading the charge, the Cardinals have the tools to win their next game.
The Lean
The Cardinals are favored with a moneyline of -124 against the Pirates, who have a moneyline of +105. The Cardinals have a better batting average and on-base percentage, ranking 8th and 12th, respectively. With the Pirates ranking lower in these stats, my pick is the Cardinals to win. My model projects a score of Cardinals 5, Pirates 4.
The total line is set at 8.5 runs, with the over at -109 and the under at -111. The Cardinals have an earned run average of 4.32, ranking 21st, while the Pirates have an ERA of 3.93, ranking 14th. Given these stats, my pick is the under. My model projects a total score of 9 runs, but the pitching stats suggest a tighter game.
Stay Ahead of the Diamond
MLB Data & Insights
Pirates’ Braxton Ashcraft Hopes to Hold Down Slumping Cards
The Pittsburgh Pirates have spent much of 2025 proving their pitching future is deeper than just Paul Skenes. That depth has been on display in St. Louis, where they’ve taken two of the first three games against the St. Louis Cardinals.
After dropping the opener 7-6, Pittsburgh bounced back with an 8-3 win Tuesday behind Mitch Keller, then a 2-1 victory Wednesday thanks to rookie Carmen Mlodzinski and top prospect Bubba Chandler. Chandler threw four scoreless innings in relief to earn his first career win.
Manager Don Kelly raved about the duo’s dominance:
“My goodness, with (Ashcraft) starting and being as good as he was and then Bubba coming in behind, you talk about efficient and dominating the strike zone. That’s a bright future right there.”
Braxton Ashcraft’s steady rise
Thursday, Pittsburgh turns to another promising arm: rookie Braxton Ashcraft (4-3, 2.70 ERA). The 24-year-old has been lights out recently, allowing just one run and four hits across his past two starts (10 innings).
He hasn’t faced the Cardinals before but enters with confidence after blanking Colorado over five innings in his last start.
Ashcraft’s recent form
| Opponent | IP | H | R | BB | K | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | Win |
| Brewers | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | No Decision |
Ashcraft’s ability to pound the zone with fastballs will be key against a Cardinals lineup that has struggled with velocity.
Cardinals searching for answers
St. Louis has dropped four of its last five games, with manager Oliver Marmol frustrated by his hitters’ inability to handle fastballs.
“We’re not hitting fastballs very good, and they kept throwing them,” Marmol said. “That’s been the struggle, and we have to figure out a way to combat it.”
Veteran Miles Mikolas (6-10, 5.17 ERA) will start for the Cardinals. It’s been a rocky month for him, posting a 7.27 ERA across four August outings. He lasted just 2 2/3 innings in his last start, giving up five runs on 10 hits against Tampa Bay.
Mikolas 2025 snapshot
| Category | Stat |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-10 |
| ERA | 5.17 |
| August ERA | 7.27 |
| Last Start | 2.2 IP, 10 H, 5 R vs TB |
Mikolas has fared better historically against the Pirates, owning a 3.00 ERA across 24 career appearances (21 starts). He pitched five innings of three-run ball in a no-decision against them earlier this season.
Keys to the matchup
Pirates
- Ashcraft must continue attacking hitters with confidence.
- Offense needs timely production against a hittable Mikolas.
- Maintain momentum — winners of six of their last seven.
Cardinals
- Mikolas must limit early damage to settle in.
- Lineup has to adjust to high-velocity fastballs.
- Avoid defensive miscues against Pittsburgh’s aggressive lineup.
Prediction outlook
The Pirates have momentum and another rookie arm trending upward, while the Cardinals are searching for answers. If Ashcraft maintains his recent form, Pittsburgh could leave St. Louis with a third straight win.
Conclusion
The Pirates’ young pitching continues to shine, and Braxton Ashcraft has a chance to add to that narrative Thursday afternoon. The Cardinals, meanwhile, must solve their fastball woes and get more from Miles Mikolas if they want to avoid another series loss.
With two teams heading in opposite directions, the finale at Busch Stadium sets up as a showcase of Pittsburgh’s future and St. Louis’ need to regroup.
