Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Predictions September 5th 2025

Guardians vs Rays Picks and Predictions — September 5, 2025

The Tampa Bay Rays are making a serious September surge, riding a season-best seven-game winning streak into Friday’s clash with the Cleveland Guardians at Tropicana Field. This second matchup of a four-game set has major Wild Card implications as both teams are in the thick of the American League playoff race.

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Oddsmakers have the Rays as slight home favorites, with the early moneyline set around -120 and the Guardians listed near +110. The over/under is hovering at 8.5.

For more context on how both clubs have performed recently, check out the full slate of MLB game results and outcomes.

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Rays Can Win If…

Tampa Bay’s offense continues to get timely contributions from top prospect Carson Williams, who drove in two runs on Thursday and executed a picture-perfect safety squeeze to seal a 4-2 victory. Even with Taylor Walls sidelined for the season, the Rays are showing resilience and depth.

Griffin Jax is set to make his first start as a Ray after 13 relief appearances. While his ERA sits at 4.98, he’s allowed just one run over his last four outings. The Rays will likely turn to Ian Seymour after Jax’s opening frame — and Seymour already shut down Cleveland in his first career start earlier this season.

“They make sure we have those opportunities,” Williams said of the club’s preparation on situational plays like bunting.

Guardians Can Win If…

The Guardians will counter with right-hander Gavin Williams (9-5, 3.26 ERA), who has been in top form. He posted a 2.43 ERA in August and already has set a career high in wins this season. Though he’s 0-1 in three career starts against Tampa Bay, his 2.93 ERA against them shows he can keep the game close.

Cleveland’s bullpen took a hit with Nic Enright placed on the IL, but Zak Kent was recalled and could be a key contributor in long relief. Manager Stephen Vogt also announced the club will move to a six-man rotation moving forward.

“We came out flat tonight,” Vogt said after Thursday’s loss, emphasizing the need for a better start in Game 2.

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

Model Projection: Rays 5, Guardians 4
Pick: Rays Moneyline
Total Lean: Over 8.5

Tampa Bay is surging at just the right time. With momentum, home-field advantage, and creative pitching strategies, the Rays are a smart moneyline play here. Stay sharp with more insights from our MLB Betting Predictions hub.

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