Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions May 19th 2025

Rays Turn to Speed and Pepiot to Spark Homestand vs. Astros

After a frustrating weekend against the Marlins, the Tampa Bay Rays return home needing a spark. They’ll try to find it Monday night as they open a nine-game homestand against the Houston Astros. The Rays are four games under .500 and sitting fourth in the AL East—but if there’s hope for a turnaround, it’s coming from a fresh face: Chandler Simpson.

Simpson Injects Life Into Tampa’s Sluggish Offense

Tampa Bay’s bats have been inconsistent. With just 179 total runs (3.89 per game), the Rays are middle-of-the-pack in the AL. But Simpson—batting .301 in the leadoff spot—has reenergized the top of the lineup with elite speed and aggressive base running.

• 9-for-11 in steal attempts in MLB
• 198 stolen bases in his last two minor league seasons
• Part of an AL-leading 57 stolen bases by the Rays

“It’s a game-changing element,” manager Kevin Cash said of the 24-year-old center fielder. His presence, combined with Jose Caballero (12 SB), has turned Tampa’s small-ball style into an offensive identity again.

Want more stats and lineups? Check our MLB team stats page for advanced breakdowns and splits.

Pitching Matchup: Pepiot vs. Gordon

Ryan Pepiot (2–5, 3.93 ERA) gets the nod for Tampa Bay in his 10th start of the season. He’s been quietly effective in May, posting a 3.31 ERA over 16.1 innings against strong lineups like the Yankees and Phillies. He’s lowered his season ERA significantly after a rocky start.

This will be his first career outing vs. Houston. His control has improved (11 K, 5 BB in last three starts), and he’ll look to avoid early trouble against a power-hitting Astros lineup.

Colton Gordon (0–0, 6.23 ERA) makes just his second career start for Houston. The rookie lefty from St. Petersburg gave up three runs over 4.1 innings in his debut but got the win thanks to late offense.

He may face trouble against Tampa Bay’s top-of-the-order speedsters if he fails to control the running game.

Check our MLB odds page for real-time lines on this intriguing matchup.

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Astros Riding Momentum, But Not Without Tension

Houston split a four-game road set with Texas, closing out the weekend with a 4–3 win thanks to Yainer Diaz’s solo shot and Isaac Paredes’ three-run homer in the seventh.

That came after some fire in the dugout—manager Joe Espada was tossed in the third inning for arguing balls and strikes while his team was being no-hit. The ejection lit a spark, and Houston stormed back late.

Since 2020, the Astros are 16–8 vs. Tampa Bay and currently ride a three-game win streak in the head-to-head series.

Paredes said postgame, “I always want to be as productive as I can to help the team win.”

Houston has been balanced in May (8–8), but they’ve thrived against the Rays—especially at Tropicana Field, where Tampa is just 11–17 this season.

Betting Preview and Trends

Tampa Bay Trends:

• 11–17 at home
• 19–5 when scoring four or more runs
• Lead AL in stolen bases (57)

Houston Trends:

• 8–8 in May
• Won last 3 vs. Rays
• 16–8 record vs. Tampa since 2020

Betting Angles:

• Under 8.5 Total Runs: Pepiot’s recent form and Gordon’s unfamiliarity may keep scoring down early.
• Rays ML (Early Lean): With Simpson’s speed setting the tone and Pepiot in control, the Rays could catch Houston off-balance in the opener.

For deeper betting picks and prop targets, check our expert MLB betting guide.

Series Outlook

This seven-game season series between the Rays and Astros begins in Tampa and finishes in Houston at the end of May. Both teams are looking to find consistency:

• The Rays want to avoid slipping further in the AL East
• The Astros hope to climb in a competitive AL West

The outcome may hinge on whether Tampa can keep the stolen-base pressure up—and if Pepiot can contain Houston’s bats long enough for the bullpen to shut it down.

Stay tuned for daily recaps, in-depth matchup previews, and lineup insights on our MLB picks page.