Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions May 18th 2025

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Rangers Turn to Rookie Jack Leiter to Seal Series Win Over Astros

The Lone Star State rivalry reaches its finale on Sunday afternoon, as the Texas Rangers aim to clinch a statement series win over the Houston Astros with rookie right-hander Jack Leiter on the mound. On the other side, the Astros will counter with veteran Framber Valdez, looking to right the ship before they head out of Arlington.

With Texas leading the four-game series 2-1, the stakes are high — not just for bragging rights, but for momentum in the tightly contested AL West.

Jack Leiter: Rookie Making His Mark

After a rocky start to his MLB journey, Jack Leiter (3-2, 4.34 ERA) is starting to show why he was a first-round draft pick in 2021.

In his last outing against the Rockies, Leiter threw his first career quality start, allowing just one run over six innings with five strikeouts. He showed poise, command, and the grit to pitch deep into the game.

“You know the bullpen is light, and I tried to attack more,” Leiter said after his win over Colorado.

This will be Leiter’s first career start vs. the Astros, and there’s no better time to test his skills against a division rival and perennial contender.

Framber Valdez: Looking to Lock In

Veteran southpaw Framber Valdez (2-4, 3.54 ERA) has been effective but not dominant in 2024. Despite a strong outing in his last start (8 IP, 1 ER vs. Kansas City), he’s still looking for rhythm and consistency.

  • Career vs. Rangers: 17 games (14 starts), 8-5, 2.83 ERA
  • Last start: 8 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 7 K vs. Royals

Valdez emphasized pitch location after his last start:

“I’ve been focused on fewer mistakes, keeping the ball low — and the results are showing,” he said.

Valdez is no stranger to the pressure of this rivalry, and his experience will be crucial to avoiding a series loss.

Offense: Rangers Rolling, Astros Stalling

The Rangers have found their groove — winners of seven of their last eight — and they’ve done it with power and pitching. On Saturday, Joc Pederson and Wyatt Langford homered to back another dominant outing from Tyler Mahle in a 5-1 win.

Meanwhile, the Astros have struggled at the plate, scoring in just two of the series’ 27 innings.

  • Game 1: Shutout 1-0
  • Game 2: 6-run 7th inning saved them in 6-3 win
  • Game 3: Scored in the 1st, then went cold in a 5-1 loss

Astros manager Joe Espada is staying optimistic.

Still, this series has exposed Houston’s inconsistent offense, especially against top-tier starting pitching.

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Tale of the Tape: Leiter vs. Valdez

StatJack LeiterFramber Valdez
Record3-22-4
ERA4.343.54
WHIP1.281.12
Strikeouts3452
Last Start6 IP, 1 ER vs. COL8 IP, 1 ER vs. KC
Career vs. OpponentFirst Start8-5, 2.83 ERA in 17 G

What’s at Stake

  • For Texas: A win secures the series 3-1, pushing them to 8 wins in 9 games and boosting confidence in their young pitching core.
  • For Houston: A loss means another series dropped and deeper offensive concerns heading into June.

FAQs

Who is starting Sunday’s Astros vs. Rangers game?

  • Texas: Jack Leiter (3-2, 4.34 ERA)
  • Houston: Framber Valdez (2-4, 3.54 ERA)

When is first pitch?

  • The game starts Sunday afternoon at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

How have the Astros performed this series?
They’ve scored in just two of 27 innings and trail the series 2-1.

How is Jack Leiter developing?
After two shaky starts, Leiter bounced back with his first career quality start, allowing just one run over six innings vs. Colorado.

Where can I get betting insights for this matchup?
Check out our full MLB odds and picks for player props, spreads, and over/unders.

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