Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions September 23rd 2025

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Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox September 23rd 2025

The Boston Red Sox will visit the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Tuesday, September 23, 2025. The game starts at 7:07 PM. The Red Sox have a record of 85-71 and are third in the AL East. They have lost their last game and are 4-6 in their last ten games.

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The Blue Jays are leading the AL East with a 90-66 record. They won their last game and are 6-4 in their last ten games. Lucas Giolito will start for Boston, while Kevin Gausman takes the mound for Toronto. The game will air on NESN, and the weather is expected to be warm with broken clouds.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Key Information

  • Sport: Baseball
  • Teams: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
  • Venue: Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON
  • Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
  • Betting Odds: Red Sox Moneyline +139, Blue Jays Moneyline -165, Red Sox Runline +1.5 (-157), Blue Jays Runline -1.5 (+131), Total Over 8.0 (-106), Total Under 8.0 (-114)

The Red Sox Can Win If…

The Boston Red Sox head into this divisional matchup looking to rebound after a 7-3 loss to Tampa Bay. Despite the setback, they managed 10 hits, with Romy Gonzalez and Alex Bregman driving in runs. Connelly Early pitched four innings and kept the game close early, but the bullpen faltered in the later frames.

Boston’s offense has been one of the most consistent in the majors. The Red Sox rank 4th in batting average at .255 and lead the league with 309 doubles. Trevor Story has been central to that production, with 25 home runs and 95 RBIs. His mix of power and timely hitting makes him one of the key threats in the lineup.

Lucas Giolito is expected to start, bringing a 3.46 ERA and strong command on the mound. The Red Sox pitching staff has been reliable overall, ranking 5th in ERA at 3.76. With Giolito’s ability to neutralize opposing hitters and Boston’s offensive depth, they have the tools to pull off a much-needed victory.

Team Snapshot

TeamRecordBatting AvgDoublesERA
Red Sox85-71.255 (4th)309 (1st)3.76 (5th)
Blue Jays90-66.267 (1st)288 (3rd)3.84 (7th)

The Blue Jays Can Win If…

The Toronto Blue Jays secured an 8-5 victory against Kansas City in their last game, snapping a four-game losing streak. Their offense woke up in that matchup, with Andrés Giménez, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading the way with multiple hits each.

Toronto boasts the top batting average in MLB at .267 and leads the league in on-base percentage (.332). Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette remain cornerstones of the lineup. Guerrero Jr. is hitting .299 with 32 doubles, while Bichette continues to hit above .300 despite battling injuries late in the season.

Kevin Gausman will take the ball with a 3.38 ERA and one of the best WHIPs in the league at 1.01. His ability to avoid walks and generate strikeouts has been key to Toronto’s success. With the postseason already clinched, the Blue Jays are focused on securing the AL East crown, and a dominant outing from Gausman could put them one step closer.

The Lean

The Blue Jays enter as -165 favorites, with the Red Sox priced at +140. Toronto holds the edge offensively, leading the league in batting average and on-base percentage. My model projects a 5-3 Blue Jays win, making Toronto the moneyline pick in this matchup.

The total is set at 8.0 runs, priced at -106 to the over. Both teams bring strong offensive profiles, and with Boston’s league-leading doubles and Toronto’s consistent contact hitting, runs should come. My projection calls for exactly 8, but the lean goes slightly toward the over at 8.0.

Betting Trends

  • Red Sox are 6-3 in their last 9 road games.
  • Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 against Boston.
  • Over has hit in 4 of the last 6 games between these two teams.

For more betting breakdowns, check the MLB picks page.

Postseason Stakes

Toronto has already clinched a playoff berth but is still battling for the AL East crown. They sit just two games ahead of the Yankees, making every win crucial for home-field advantage. The Blue Jays are 50-25 at home this season, underscoring the importance of maintaining their edge in the standings.

For Boston, this series represents a final push to lock up a wild-card spot. They remain just one game clear of Houston and Cleveland, and every contest carries postseason weight. Manager Alex Cora has emphasized consistency at the plate, noting the club’s ability to string together quality at-bats in big spots.

Key Player Notes

  • Trevor Story, Red Sox: 25 HR, 95 RBIs, hitting well in September.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays: .299 average, 30+ doubles, power presence in the heart of the lineup.
  • Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays: 10-10 record, 3.38 ERA, WHIP of 1.01.
  • Lucas Giolito, Red Sox: 10-4 record, 3.46 ERA, steady veteran presence.

Final Projection

MarketLineProjectionPick
MoneylineBOS +140 / TOR -165Blue Jays 5-3Blue Jays ML
Total Runs8.08Over 8.0
Run LineTOR -1.5 (+135)Blue Jays by 2Lean TOR RL

For a complete breakdown of numbers and angles, see the MLB odds page.

Manager Quotes

Blue Jays manager John Schneider praised his club’s resilience after clinching a postseason berth, pointing to the chemistry in the clubhouse. Meanwhile, Red Sox skipper Alex Cora acknowledged the pressure of the stretch run but emphasized his team is “in a good position” to push through the final week.

For additional strategy breakdowns, visit the expert MLB betting guide.